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According to Golden Ten Data on April 3, EY-Parthenon Senior Economist Lydia Boussour stated that although the US labor market saw a strong rebound in March, it remains fragile. She believes that against a backdrop of growing policy uncertainty, companies have become more cautious, hiring intentions are cooling, and businesses are increasingly inclined to protect profit margins by boosting productivity rather than expanding their workforce. “Looking ahead, we expect the labor market in 2026 to remain essentially frozen, characterized by selective hiring, restricted wage growth, and strategic personnel adjustments as labor supply remains historically tight.” Boussour expects job growth to fall slightly below breakeven levels, with the unemployment rate gradually rising to around 4.7%. “Given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, downside risks predominate, and the probability of a recession stands at 40%,” she added.

On April 3rd, Jason Pride, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Research at Glenmede, stated that the US labor market may be regaining its footing after a slight fluctuation in February. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000 in March, significantly exceeding expectations, compared to a revised net decrease of 133,000 jobs in February. However, he cautioned against judging the labor market's strength solely on headline figures. Pride pointed out that the increased volatility in monthly nonfarm payroll data suggests a slowing pace in the labor market's operations, reflecting both demographic pressures and a weakening demand for labor. He also mentioned that the decline in the unemployment rate is more attributable to people exiting the labor force rather than new job creation, a trend that could signal underlying weakness and warrants attention in the coming months.

Previously, Russia implemented a gasoline export ban starting from April 1.