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ChainCatcher news, NickTimiraos' latest article said that in the debate about whether and when the Fed will cut interest rates, another important debate is unfolding: where will interest rates go in the long run? The key to the problem lies in the neutral interest rate: the interest rate that can balance the supply and demand of savings while ensuring stable economic growth and inflation. The neutral interest rate is sometimes called "r*" or "r-star", which cannot be directly observed and can only be inferred. Every quarter, Federal Reserve officials predict long-term interest rates, which is actually their estimate of the neutral interest rate. Now some people think that the neutral interest rate has reason to rise and may change a wide range of asset prices. Because the economy is strong and inflation is "weak." But the current debate about the neutral interest rate may not have any short-term impact on the Federal Reserve because the current interest rate is higher than almost all estimates of the neutral interest rate. This means that the current interest rate suppresses economic growth and price increases, and nominal interest rates are more likely to fall than rise in the future. If the US economy continues to remain strong and inflation is stubborn, it may trigger market speculation that the neutral interest rate will rise, so that the current interest rate is not so tight. From this perspective, the Federal Reserve has even less reason to cut interest rates. Another scenario is that if inflation resumes its downward trend, the discussion about the neutral interest rate will focus on the extent of the Fed's subsequent rate cuts. Nick said that there is no doubt that the Fed wants to "normalize policy", but where is the "normalization"? They will not stop at 5%, but they will not go all the way down to 2.5%. They (may) feel more comfortable stopping in the 3% or 4% range, but it is not yet determined. Interest rate futures show that the Fed funds rate will stabilize at around 4% in the next few years.

Golden Finance reported that according to Hong Kong media Ming Pao, China Asset Management, Harvest International and Bosera Fund, three major Chinese fund companies, were approved by the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission this week to issue one Bitcoin and one Ethereum spot ETF each. According to the product summary, China Asset Management's ETF has the highest annual expense ratio, reaching 1.99%; Harvest and Bosera's ETFs have annual expense ratios of 1% and 0.85% respectively, which are still generally higher than the Bitcoin spot ETFs issued in the United States. It is understood that China Asset Management's high expense ratio partly reflects that the bank has purchased insurance worth a total of US$1 billion for related assets. The management fee cap for the Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs issued by China Asset Management is 0.99% of AUM, and there is an internal assessment that the actual fee can be reduced to 0.65%. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart believes that Harvest's 6-month management fee exemption and the lowest fees are likely to lead to a fee reduction war among Hong Kong fund companies.