Polymarket Sees 77% Chance for U.S. Solana ETF Approval

Polymarket traders are showing rising confidence in U.S.-approved Solana ETF, placing a 77% probability on it happening by the end of 2025.

The forecast comes amid Solana (SOL) jumping over 11% over the week, driven by the debut of spot Solana ETFs in Canada on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). These ETFs are backed by direct SOL holdings and include staking features — a first for any publicly listed Solana product.

But while Canada moves ahead, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) still hasn’t approved any Solana-based ETF. Still, that hasn’t stopped seven big-name U.S. asset managers — including Fidelity, VanEck, Franklin Templeton, and Grayscale — from filing to launch their own Solana ETFs, sparking a wave of speculation across the market.

That growing buzz is clearly showing up on Polymarket, the decentralized betting platform. 

As of April 18, here’s where things stand:

• 77% chance of a U.S. Solana ETF approval by December 31, 2025
• Just a 24% chance of approval by July 31, 2025

This shows that while short-term approval seems unlikely, traders expect regulatory clarity to arrive within the next 20 months.

The Polymarket contract has seen over $135,689 in bets, and it resolves to “Yes” only if the SEC approves a spot Solana ETF by the end of 2025. Approval must come through official channels — either via a Rule 19b-4 filing or S-1 registration — and must be confirmed by the SEC or credible media outlets.

Solana’s price movement this week signals rising investor optimism. It’s currently trading at $139.63, up 12% over the past seven days, and pumped about 4% in the last 24 hours. 

Still, the token has some ground to cover, as it’s trading nearly 30% below its early 2024 highs and is down 21.9% against Bitcoin so far this year.

Outside of North America, Solana is also picking up steam in Asian markets, showing growing global interest in the asset. In South Korea, SOL’s volume in Korean won became its fifth-largest trading pair, with local exchanges like Upbit showing a 2.15% premium.

While there’s no guarantee the SEC will move anytime soon, Polymarket bettors clearly believe a U.S. Solana ETF is more a matter of “when,” not “if.”