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Played on Paper Read in the Substack app Open app OGC Nice's Ratcliffe Renaissance - How has it gone? I was going to say revolution but probably not the best choice since it's in France. 1 OGC Nice: a future "superpower" to compete with PSG? It’s probably common knowledge for most of you that follow me, but for those who don’t know, I am a Manchester United fan. I try to avoid talking about United too much in this newsletter because, for one, I write about them a lot for my actual job and secondly, this newsletter was set up to talk about football in general, but the topic of new ownership at Old Trafford allows for me to bend the rules ‘a little’. Like many United fans, I was ecstatic when the news broke that the club were potentially up for sale and the 17 (now nearly 18) year tyranny of the Glazer Family could finally be over. However, where some fans will be happy with anyone but the Glazers in charge, my thoughts turned to who could possibly be the best suitor to take the helm at Old Trafford. Bids have been mooted from all over the world; as a very bad Pitbull verse would say they range from the US to the Middle East. What should be noted now, and apologies for bursting anyone’s bubble, but there will be no ‘perfect option’. Every bid will likely come with its problems; it’s just a sliding scale of how bad those issues are (personally I’d like to avoid any owners that have allegedly breached human rights but that’s just me). That being said, the wheels are now in motion.On Tuesday night, Sir Jim Ratcliffe and Ineos became the first party to formally register their interest in purchasing United from the Glazer Family. Ratcliffe has been present in the world of sports for many years, having a large stake in the Mercedes Formula 1 team while owning the Team Sky Cycling Team and Britain’s Americas Cup sailing team, but it is his sporting venture in France that is of most interest. Ratcliffe already owns OGC Nice, meaning that Manchester United fans and more importantly, me writing this week’s newsletter, are in the rare position where we can take a look at how he has fared running the French club and use this information to see whether he is the right man to take over at Old Trafford. (He also owns Lausanne in Switzerland, but given their small stature, Nice is a much better comparison) So that’s what this week’s newsletter is about, The Ratcliffe Renaissance on the south coast of France and what we can take away from it. The Takeover Before we start, what should be made clear is that Nice’s ambitions and Manchester United’s are completely different, or at least their end goal of winning the league is a little further down the line. Before the £88m takeover in August of 2019, OGC Nice’s last league title came in the 1958/59 season and their last trophy was in 1997 with a win in the Coupe de France. They had been in Europe (in the Europa League) as late as the 2017/18 season. Youcef Atal (22) and Allan Saint-Maximin (21), who were upcoming young stars, shared the honours as the club’s top scorers and top assists in the 2018/19 season, with six goals and six assists a piece. The squad had an average age of 22.8 years old and was managed by France and Arsenal legend Patrick Vieira, who had led the team to a respectable 7th placed finish, one place higher than their 8th-placed finish the previous year. Alongside the idyllic location on the Southern French coast (yes that factor matters) and a fairly modern 36,178 capacity stadium, they had the foundations of a club that could rival Paris Saint-Germain. They would have also hoped that due to this new investment, they wouldn’t be picked apart the instant they mounted a successful challenge, like Montepellier and Monaco before them and Lille soon after. It was clear where the squad needed investment however, they needed a reliable goalscorer and they needed to stop leaking goals; their 52 goals conceded was the worst tally out of the top 10 sides in the 2018/19 season. Type your email... Subscribe With their stadium built in 2011 and training facilities built in 2017, Nice was more of a football-first project. Ratcliffe said in his statement when he bought the club: “It has been quite a long journey getting here. We have looked at a lot of clubs in the manner we look at businesses in Ineos - for value and potential - and Nice fulfils that criteria.” Manchester United, on the other hand, have a much better playing squad and are in a much better financial and competitive position than OGC Nice, but they have more need for investment in terms of facilities and infrastructure. However, it is clear that both clubs needed/need to improve their scouting and look to ‘sign smarter’, this is done with clever appointments in the backroom. So just how did a Ratcliffe-owned Nice approach their project over the next few years? The Project When It (Kinda) Works: 2019/20-2021/22 Now many United fans reading this will want to get straight to their transfer business, ‘How much did they spend and how well did they spend it?’ But I think it’s more important to first touch on if any appointments were made behind the scenes to guide their policy and shaped their side. Julien Fournier was Nice’s CEO from 2011, but when Ratcliffe bought the club he was moved into a role as the club’s Director of Football. According to Transfermarkt, bar the removal of Chairman Chien Lee and the odd personnel change, there doesn’t seem to be any more significant shifts during this period (we’ll get to a more drastic change in the next section). So after keeping you waiting for all of two paragraphs, let’s get to the signings. Firstly let’s talk about the outlay (all the following data is according to Transfermarkt)… Between 2012/13 and 2018/19, Nice never spent more on transfers than they brought in through sales. Their model was purely focused on sustainability. In 2018/19, the season before the acquisition, Nice spent €28m on transfers, this was their highest outlay over this period, however during this campaign, they received €61.7m in fees, mostly thanks to the sales of Jean Michel Seri (€30m) and Alassane Plea (€23m). Nice’s last window prior to Ratcliffe’s takeover In 2019/20 they bucked the trend by spending €52.2m with an income of €23.1m, the following season this dropped back to €29.2 spend but still around €9m more than they received in fees and in 2021/22 their spend went back up to €55m which was over double the €26m they received in fees. That’s a lot of numbers, so for those of you that don’t want to pick through it: they went from spending sustainably to spending like a club that has financial backing after the takeover. But anyone can spend money, United have shown that over the past 10 years, it’s about the results you get from that outlay. So let’s take a look at the players Nice signed and then how this impacted results. When speaking about Nice with Alex Collings (a Lyon Fan and someone who should be one of your go-to guys when it comes to Ligue 1), he had this to say about their recruitment: “I think their recruitment started off nice, albeit more so in idea than execution. They wanted to find young talents to build around, but they overpaid on the guys they wanted, rather than finding niche players in the market or lesser known players like clubs such as Brighton do.” On a separate note, we agreed in terms of player development and creating a pathway, they did not use their link with Ratcliffe’s other club FC Lausanne enough. We also agreed that this sort of transfer strategy would be less of a problem at United as the ‘sell-on value’ of players would not be the priority, and ‘obvious’ targets would be more in line with what the club are looking at. Nice’s transfer business can be delegated into four main categories: Underrated (at their clubs) young players for a reasonable fee - Amine Gouiri, Jean-Clair Todibo, Flavius Daniliuc, Kephrem Thuram (he’s so good and they got him for free) Young players that they spent a little too much on - Kasper Dolberg, Alexis Claude-Maurice, Stanley Nsoki Decent squad members - Andy Delort, Pablo Rosario, Hassane Kamara Just why? - Morgan Schneiderlin, Robson Bambu, Mario Lemina Todibo, Gouiri and Thuram are probably the standouts on this list and all fall under the first category (Todibo was a little more senior but I think still counts). United have been following a similar strategy recently, signing the likes of Alejandro Garnacho and Hannibal Mejbri from other academies. On paper, it seems like a fine group, however, what truly matters is how they performed. Nice’s highest finish in the 21st century was 3rd in Lucien Favre’s first season (2016/17), earning 78 points. This gave them a chance to qualify for the Champions League through the playoffs but they were well beaten by Napoli in the final round. So this was the immediate aim; equal or better their third-placed finish and qualify for the Champions League. Spoilers… they didn’t do it. In their first season after the takeover, under Patrick Vieira, they finished 5th with 41 points. Ironically PSG won the league with 68 points, meaning it was a low-scoring year, however, Nice were closer to the relegation zone (Amiens on 23 points) than winning the title. We can give Nice the benefit of the doubt here. As previously stated it was just a weird year in terms of how competitive the league was and you could see it as a bedding-in period for the new regime. The following season they improved their points tally, earning 52 points in 2020/21. The problem was this was only enough to see them finish 9th. Patrick Vieira was sacked in December and his assistant Adrian Ursea took over as caretaker until the summer. It was a step backwards and probably explained the increased investment the following year. It also explained their choice of manager in the summer. Type your email... Subscribe Christophe Galtier won the league with Lille in 2020/21 beating a strong PSG side, but two days after his victory he resigned saying: "I simply have the deep belief that my time is up here." One month later, he was at Nice (that French Riviera draw is pretty strong). It was a statement of intent from Ratcliffe and the rest of the ownership, convincing one of the best managers in French football to take a step back to help them with their project. And they finished 5th again. Many fans agree that the style of football Nice played under Galtier was much better; that combined with his title win with Lille was the reason that PSG came in for him the following summer. The team also earned more points (66), finishing behind a rampant Rennes team on goal difference and three points behind 3rd placed Monaco. So despite their position in the table, there was a clear sign of progression. What should also be noted in this time (May 2022), is how Galtier commented on the positive and active role that Ratcliffe took as owner: "[His presence is] a strong message, for the players, the staff and the club. He has a great determination that we will be more successful next season. There will be a reflection on where and how we can improve. In a period that is not easy, it is important that everyone sees him. His presence is both a moral support and proof of the commitment and ambition he has for the club.” So there was a clear upwards trend at Nice; the squad was in a good place and results were improving, but there is a reason I have left one season off this analysis and unfortunately, you’re about to see why. The Wheels Come Off (2022/23) It all started to go wrong when Galtier and Fournier both left in the summer of 2022. Nice had done incredibly well to get Galtier the previous year, but it was clear that if the PSG job had been available then they wouldn’t have had a chance. So when Mauricio Pochettino was sacked and the club from the capital came knocking, Galtier didn’t even blink. Lucien Favre returned to the dugout in his place. This wouldn’t have been a bad appointment, but the club did not align their transfer strategy with the new manager. Nice did not appoint a new Director of Football and based on Ross Barkley’s comments (yeah we’ll get to him), it seemed that Ratcliffe and Brailsford were leading the club’s transfer business. Barkley told Talksport: “They presented me with a project over multiple years. It is a club that wants to go far, that wants to be a big club at a European level. “I managed to speak with Dave Brailsford, who showed me the growth project at the club. Jim Ratcliffe also convinced me to come here to help the team progress.” And as you might expect from the tidbits of information I’ve given you so far, and the title of this section, their business went terribly. According to Transfermarkt, Nice spent a record €70m in the summer window of 2022. There are some genuine gems in there fitting the ‘good young player but they paid too much’ bracket such as Sofiane Diop and Mattia Viti. They also brought in a reliable goalscorer in Gaetan Laborde (but they had sold their best player in Gouiri to Rennes to replace him)… but then it went weird. This was in 2022… Apologies to Badredine Bouanani who inadvertently has caught a stray by being caught in this list, but as you can see above a large number of Premier League or former PL players were brought in. Kasper Schmeichel had clearly been declining at Leicester the previous season and was brought in cheaply to replace an exceptional Walter Benitez who had been allowed to leave for free to PSV. Mads Bech Sorensen did not play and then returned to Brentford a month after the window had closed. Aaron Ramsey and Ross Barkley were way past their best and Joe Bryan I don’t even have words to explain why he’s there even if it is on loan. The only player that makes some sense is Nicolas Pepe, who thrived in Ligue 1 before flopping when he moved to Arsenal. None of these players seemed to gel together under Favre, with the manager even saying that he had been told what Barkley’s best position was rather than knowing it himself. Type your email... Subscribe And with the club languishing in 11th with only five wins in 17 games, Favre was unceremoniously sacked at the turn of the year after Nice lost in the Coupe de France to Ligue 3 side Le Puy-en-Velay (yes this is the place the lentils come from). However, this could be seen as a turning point for Nice. Didier Digard was appointed caretaker manager for his good work with the club’s youth sides and more importantly, the club brought in a new Sporting Director in 37-year-old Florent Ghisolfi. Ghisolfi is responsible for RC Lens sporting project and recruitment that currently sees them second in Ligue 1, only three points behind PSG. So to avoid drawing this out any longer I’ll give you the short answer that he’s very good at his job. Ratcliffe will be hoping that he can untangle the mess and get Nice back on track next summer, but his biggest task will be shifting some of his more questionable signings from this season. So What’s The Verdict? When Sir Jim Ratcliffe first took over at Nice he said: “We made some mistakes at Lausanne, but we are fast learners, these have been rectified and we are already seeing the benefits. Clubs need to be successful off the pitch, as well as on it, and Nice will be no different.” He was right, but not in the way he intended. Ratcliffe’s time running Nice has been a learning curve, he has made mistakes but each with a teachable lesson. He learnt what sort of players to target, what happens when you spend poorly and most importantly to have the right people in charge of overseeing the project. These will all stand him in good stead if he is to purchase United. But what Ratcliffe must also understand is that owning Nice is like dipping your toe into the adult pool before going to learn to swim in the shallow end; overseeing United will be like being thrown in the deep end and then also finding out there are sharks. According to the Sunday Times Rich List in 2022, Ratcliffe’s net worth sits at around £6.075bn. This is around the valuation that many believe the Glazers will sell United for. Given the investment needed (and also the debt to pay off), he may need to head up a consortium to have the financials to compete with United’s rivals after the purchase. Furthermore, there is the question of Ten Hag and the autonomy he currently holds at United. If Ratcliffe came in and acted as he has done at times in Nice, wanting to implement his own ideas, then the two could clash. So my overall verdict when looking at Nice is he has not done anything that bad and the major issues he has looked to rectify quickly, but progress has been slow. There is the occasional instance of Ratcliffe interfering but given his recent appointments, he can be given the benefit of the doubt that he has learnt his lesson there (Ross Barkley does that to people) Whether United fans will accept that when some of the other potential buyers are willing to throw the kitchen sink at it we are yet to see.