Bitcoin trades at ‘40% discount’ as spot BTC ETF buying soars to $3B in one week

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin is currently trading at a 40% discount to its intrinsic value, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards.

In a recent post on X, Edwards  highlighted that since the April 2024 halving, which reduced block rewards to 3.125 BTC, Bitcoin’s energy value—an estimate based on mining costs and energy consumption—stands at $130,000.

  Recent data from  CryptoQuant  indicated that over 8,756 BTC ($830 million) were withdrawn from Coinbase on April 24. Negative netflows from Coinbase could point toward institutional buying, or ETF-related purchases reflecting underlying demand.  

This development lines up with the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows witnessed this week. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas  suggests  that institutions went on a $3 billion ‘Bitcoin bender’ over the past few days.

Binance also witnessed exchange outflows of 27,750 BTC on April 25. Alphractal founder  Joao Wedson noted that “this is the third largest Bitcoin outflow in the exchange’s history.” Although large outflows and positive price action suggest bullish tailwinds, Wedson said they do not automatically mean a continued rally. The analyst said,

“In 2021, massive outflows didn’t prevent the dump triggered by China’s crypto ban (April–May). On the other hand, continuous outflows over several days, like during the FTX collapse, signaled a bottom and recovery.”

Can this Bitcoin fractal push BTC above $100K in April?

Bitcoin’s weekly performance marks its highest return in 2025 and its most significant uptick since November 2024. Besides similar returns, the BTC price also reflects identical price action.

As illustrated in the 1-day chart, Bitcoin is consolidating at a higher range after its breakout, mirroring its behavior from Q4, 2024. (circled). After a 13% rise between Nov. 5-9, BTC posted another 15% increase during Nov. 10-11. The breakout took place during the weekend as well.

Similarly, BTC prices have risen 11% between April 21-25. With the relative strength index (RSI) also exhibiting similar buying pressure, a 7-10% jump over the next few days could take BTC above $100,000.

While fractal patterns may repeat, they aren't perfectly reliable. Unlike Q4, when Bitcoin entered price discovery and rallied without resistance, the current overhead resistance level at $96,100 could impede a breakout.