According to Decrypt, since Bitcoin completed its fourth halving in April 2024, BTC's price has risen only 43.4%, significantly lower than the gains of 7,000%, 291%, and 541% recorded after the previous three halvings, marking the worst performance post-halving for Bitcoin.

Analysis indicates that macroeconomic uncertainties, trade policies of the Trump administration, ETF fund outflows, and changes in market structure have collectively weakened the halving's positive price effects. Additionally, as the Bitcoin market matures, price volatility is decreasing, with its 60-day volatility dropping from 200% in 2012 to about 50% currently, suggesting a more stable but limited upward trend in the future.