Bitcoin Profits Return, Fueling Fresh Speculation Among Holders

Bitcoin, like a financial phoenix, rises from its ashes with startling vigor. Surpassing $94,000 on April 23, the crypto-queen shakes the markets and rekindles hopes for a historic six-figure peak. Behind this ascent, a complex alchemy is at play: long-term holders, new capital inflows, and psychological balances map out a treasure map full of traps. How should we interpret this dance of numbers? Between euphoria and caution, a dive into the depths of a boiling market.

Holders and fresh capital: The explosive cocktail of the Bitcoin rally

After months of lethargy, short-term holders (STH) are smiling again. Their break-even point, set around $91,700, was shattered on April 22, with bitcoin crossing $94,000 .

The result: nearly 70% of their portfolios are now in the green. This reversal is no coincidence. Historically, when STHs return to profit, they become less eager to sell, creating leverage on prices. A similar dynamic had preceded the 2021 rally.

In the shadows, long-term holders (LTH) — investors who have held their BTC for more than 155 days — quietly accumulate.

Since February, an additional 363,000 bitcoins have joined their vaults, according to Glassnode . A silo strategy reminiscent of pre-halving behavior, where anticipated scarcity drives accumulation.

Meanwhile, whales and sharks (wallets holding 100 to 10,000 bitcoins) have swallowed the equivalent of 300% of the annual issuance. A voracious appetite that lays the foundations for a structural shortage.

April saw a wave of fresh capital arriving, attracted by promises of a $100,000 peak. These buyers, often institutional, inject liquidity at high price levels, implicitly validating the current valuation. Peer validation works as a virtuous circle: the higher the bitcoin price climbs, the more funds flow in. But this mechanic has its limits…

$97,000: The wall of regrets or a springboard into the unknown?

Just shy of $100,000, a major obstacle is looming: 392,000 BTC would be sleeping in wallets bought around $97,000. For these holders, often trapped during previous peaks, selling “at break-even” would be tempting.

Sales pressure equivalent to nearly $38 billion could thus slow the momentum. Axel Adler Jr ., a renowned analyst, sums it up: “$96,100 is the last line of defense for holders of 3 to 6 months. What happens next will depend on their discipline.”

Despite this risk, some traders see further ahead. The Wyckoff reaccumulation model , theorizing phases of consolidation followed by explosions, seems to be replaying. Ezy Bitcoin, an anonymous trader, mentions targets of $131,500, even $166,700.

This scenario assumes large wallets absorb the available supply, turning resistance into a launching pad. A bold bet, but historically credible: in 2017 and 2021, similar patterns preceded gains of over 200%.

For individuals, the temptation to take profits is strong. Yet, on-chain data shows unprecedented resilience: the number of bitcoins in active circulation stagnates, a sign that the majority prefer to hold their tokens. A patience contrasting with past frenzies. Could this be the effect of market maturation before the 100k… or an excess of confidence?