Lyn Alden sees $100,000 Bitcoin as possible if liquidity returns

Macroeconomist Lyn Alden has revised her 2025 Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) forecast, citing U.S. tariff policy as a key factor limiting potential gains.

Alden now expects Bitcoin to finish the year above its current level of around $85,000 but notes that her projection would have been higher without recent trade-related developments.

“Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target,” Alden said in a recent interview, referring to President Donald Trump’s February tariff announcement, which she believes introduced uncertainty and reduced investor enthusiasm.

“My guess is that we end up higher at the end of the year than we are now, at least,” said Alden, remaining optimistic despite the revised outlook.

Alden emphasised that liquidity is the most important driver for Bitcoin’s price.

She said a “massive liquidity unlock,” such as a Federal Reserve policy shift toward quantitative easing or yield curve control, could push Bitcoin toward the $100,000 mark before year-end.

“If the bond market broke and the Fed had to step in, that could be a big catalyst,” she explained.

She also noted Bitcoin’s around-the-clock trading as a source of increased volatility, allowing it to respond to market stress at times when traditional financial markets are closed.

“Because it trades 24/7, if people are worried about how things are going to open on Monday, some pools of capital can sell their Bitcoin on a Sunday and prepare,” Alden said.

Looking beyond short-term volatility, Alden suggested Bitcoin could diverge from U.S. equities under certain macroeconomic conditions.

She pointed to the 2003–2007 period when capital rotated into commodities and emerging markets, speculating that a similar trend could benefit Bitcoin if U.S. equities face margin pressures while global liquidity remains strong.

Her analysis also shows that Bitcoin tends to move in line with the global M2 money supply 83% of the time over a 12-month span, reinforcing its role as a “global liquidity barometer.”

At the time of reporting, the Bitcoin (BTC) price was $86,913.19.