Analyst: Ethereum MVRV has diverged since 2022, and the key turning point is the shift to PoS

on-chain data analyst Murphy released an analysis of ETH based on token flow and value ratio. The proportion of ETH traffic on trading platforms has fallen below 35% since the end of December 2022. This value had previously exceeded 50% in September 2021, indicating that ETH could compete with BTC in terms of inflow/outflow ratio on trading platforms. The significant decrease in this ratio now suggests that the attention to ETH from investors is decreasing.

Starting from December 2022, there has been a clear differentiation between Bitcoin's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) (blue line) and Ethereum's MVRV (yellow line). In the 7 years prior to this, this indicator had always alternated dominance, with either ETH or BTC being stronger at different times. Now, the blue line has consistently remained below the yellow line, indicating that from December 2022 until today, the unrealized profits of ETH holders have always been lower than those of BTC. Whether from trading platform data or on-chain data, it seems that December 2022 was a turning point for the trend of Ethereum. Coincidentally, on September 15, 2022, the Ethereum mainnet merged with the beacon chain, completely ending PoW mining and transitioning to PoS consensus mechanism, and everything changed after that.

As the weakening trend of emotions subsides, the capital inflow of the two major mainstream assets BTC and ETH has significantly decreased since December of last year. However, BTC still manages to maintain a positive inflow of $5.4 billion over the past 30 days; while ETH has turned into a net capital outflow since February 15, with nearly $6.2 billion flowing out in the past 30 days as of yesterday. The attitude of funds is an important factor in determining prices and trends, and the resurgence of ETH's trend will require waiting for funds to pay attention again.