Bitcoin holds steady during Good Friday market closure, macro forces shape global risk narrative

Bitcoin traded flat near $84,500 on Friday, holding its range as U.S. markets observed Good Friday.

With equities, bonds, and commodities largely offline, the crypto market offered a rare window into investor sentiment absent broader liquidity and institutional flow.

The muted price action followed a session on Thursday that saw sharp moves across traditional assets before the holiday shutdown.

Gold climbs, oil surges as macro signals diverge

Gold rose 1.74% on Thursday, bolstered by a convergence of dollar weakness and renewed physical demand.

As Reuters reported, Citi raised its three-month gold target to $3,500, citing supply deficits and increased purchases by newly authorized Chinese insurers. Physical tightness continues to shape the bullion market, with strategic allocations growing more common among state-linked institutions.

Oil registered a 5.04 percent gain after the U.S. announced fresh sanctions on Iran’s state-linked shipping firm, Sahara Thunder.

The Treasury Department’s move curtailed expectations of supply normalization, fueling concern over the availability of key Persian Gulf crude. The announcement came in thin liquidity, exaggerating price movements into the Thursday close.

U.S. dollar weakness further amplified both commodity moves. The dollar index fell 0.46% as the European Central Bank cut rates again and U.S. political uncertainty intensified.

President Trump revived speculation over Fed leadership by floating the potential removal of Chair Jerome Powell. That commentary, alongside renewed dovish pressure from Europe, weighed on the dollar and bolstered dollar-denominated alternatives.

Risk assets retreat on policy and legal uncertainty

S&P 500 futures dropped 1.1% before the close as traders de-risked into the long weekend. While cash equities were shut on Friday, Thursday’s sell-off was attributed to judicial and executive tensions over central bank independence.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a ruling potentially easing the path for removing the heads of independent federal agencies. Combined with White House commentary about replacing Powell, futures trading responded with reduced risk appetite.

Bond prices were also adjusted. U.S. 10-year Treasury prices declined marginally by 0.03%, with a slight yield uptick. New York Fed President John Williams pushed back on expectations for near-term easing, noting that inflation data, particularly from tariffs, did not warrant immediate action.

The next scheduled release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, on April 30 adds pressure to reposition ahead of the data, even as fixed income desks prepared to close for the long weekend.

Chinese 10-year government bond prices remained stable, reflecting Beijing’s plan to hold Loan Prime Rates steady. Officials opted to maintain current levels to preserve financial stability, especially as the yuan showed resilience amid shifting global trade conditions.

Bitcoin rangebound as volatility concentrates elsewhere

Despite the activity in traditional markets, Bitcoin’s response was subdued. The digital asset held its level even as gold, oil, and equities reacted to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.

That divergence, while not unusual during U.S. holidays, reflects both reduced institutional volume and the absence of a dominant crypto-specific catalyst.

In recent sessions, Bitcoin has mostly outperformed macro flows, diverging from its recent correlation with equity futures and inflation-sensitive assets.

Traders are watching for holiday developments in the ongoing global trade war, which has seen Trump escalate via Truth Social over the past weekends. Repositioning may begin when CME futures and bond markets resume trading.

Until then, Bitcoin is one of the few live indicators of sentiment in a macro environment increasingly shaped by policy signaling and cross-asset volatility.

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