Does Bitcoin Really Follow Gold? Here’s What History Tells Us

Gold just hit a historic high at $3,357 an ounce in April, raising a burning question: will bitcoin follow suit? As investors seek safe havens amid economic turmoil, some experts examine the links between these two assets. But is this correlation systematic, or does it hide more complex realities? A dive into the data and underlying mechanisms.

Bitcoin and Gold: Historical Links and Predictive Models

In 2017, a 30% rise in gold preceded bitcoin’s surge to $19,120. Three years later, the precious metal reached $2,075 before BTC soared to $69,000. These episodes suggest a recurring pattern: bitcoin would react with a delay of 100 to 150 days after gold’s records .

Joe Consorti , expert at Theya, summarizes: “When the money printer goes crazy, gold senses inflation first. Bitcoin follows, but with a latency period.”

This lag is explained by market psychology. Gold, an ancestral safe haven, first attracts capital during crises.

Institutional investors, more cautious, then turn to bitcoin, seen as digital gold. However, this sequence is not mechanical. In 2022, despite resilient gold, bitcoin dropped below $20,000, undermined by crypto bankruptcies and rising rates. The correlation thus depends on the context.

A mathematical model, the power law, adds an intriguing layer. By normalizing bitcoin’s market capitalization relative to gold’s, some foresee a peak at $400,000 by the end of 2025.

An anonymous analyst, apsk32 , even predicts a paroxysmal phase between July and November 2025. These projections, though speculative, rely on past cycles where BTC consistently outperformed gold after a delay.

Macroeconomic Context: Uncertainties Over the Situation

Beyond the charts, the gold-Bitcoin duo reflects deeper concerns. Mike Novogratz , CEO of Galaxy Digital, speaks of a “Minsky moment” for the U.S. economy: an instability where financial excesses precipitate a collapse.

The weakened dollar , a national debt of $35 trillion, and geopolitical tensions push investors toward tangible assets. In this landscape, bitcoin acts as a barometer of distrust towards traditional systems.

Yet, dynamics diverge. Gold benefits from a timeless status, while bitcoin remains volatile, tied to technological and regulatory innovations.

In 2024, its price stagnated despite the surge in gold, reminding us that its valuation also depends on institutional adoption and ETFs. Novogratz also notes that markets underestimate economic risks, which could amplify BTC’s upward movements in the coming months.

The question of timing remains. If previous cycles suggest a delayed effect, the current convergence of crises (inflation, energy transitions, U.S. elections) could accelerate trends.

Bitcoin supporters see an opportunity: bitcoin is not just a clone of gold. It is a hedge against the collapse of fiat currencies. But this vision assumes that global investors cross a psychological threshold, treating bitcoin as a legitimate store of value.

Ultimately, the relationship between gold and bitcoin is less a reflex than a mirror of economic fears. BTC follows gold … when macro conditions allow. Its growth potential depends as much on monetary policies as on its maturation as a safe-haven asset. The coming months, marked by political tensions and rate adjustments, will be a crucial test. If bitcoin surpasses its 2021 record following gold, the correlation will gain credibility. Otherwise, it will have to assert its independence—a key step in gaining the status of “gold 2.0.”