Reuters Survey: Probability of U.S. Entering Recession in the Next Year is 45%
According to a report by Jinse, a Reuters survey indicates that the U.S. economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 (compared to previous forecasts of 2.2% and 2.0% in March). The probability of the U.S. entering a recession in the next year is 45%, the highest level since December 2023. Inflation expectations for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 2025 have also been adjusted upward by the largest margin since March 2023.
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