Biweekly Market Update: Mantra Messes, XRP ETF Launch ImpressesAnother Shocking CollapseAccusations and DenialsA Crisis of ConfidenceExchange Behavio

After weeks of market chaos triggered by aggressive tariff swings from US president Donald Trump, traders were finally granted a short window to catch their breath. The past few days have been notably less volatile (at least by recent standards), with no new major tariff announcements shaking global markets. But many tapped-in cryptocurrency investors and traders remain aware that the underlying threat to world economies remains ever-present, as investors and policymakers alike brace for the next twist in the U.S.-China trade saga.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, has settled into an unusually calm rhythm following its sharp rebound on Apr 11, 2025, when temporary tariff exemptions on key electronics sent crypto prices surging. Since then, BTC has held a narrow range between $83,000 and $86,000, a sign that both bulls and bears are momentarily unsure of their next move.

1-day, 7-day, and 30-day price changes across top market cap cryptocurrencies

But while the crypto market waits for support and resistance breaches, two major stories have drawn the community’s attention, and will be the primary subject matter of this week’s market update. One is the sudden collapse of the Mantra (OM) token and its growing comparisons to past industry disasters. The other is the progression on the long-awaited XRP ETF journey, which could bring “ripple” effects across the digital asset space.

Another Shocking Collapse

On Apr 13, 2025, the cryptocurrency world was shaken by the dramatic and sudden crash of Mantra's OM token, dropping from a high of $6.35 to just $0.37 in a matter of hours. The staggering drop of over 90% saw its market capitalization plunge from $6.11B to $683M. This collapse led to immediate comparisons to past catastrophic crypto events such as the and , sparking fears across social media and crypto forums.

Ardizor’s summary of the OM/WETH price ratio crash, and announcement of Mantra’s deleted Telegram group

According to Mantra CEO John Patrick Mullin, the crash was caused by (CEXs) initiating reckless forced liquidations. He emphasized that these closures happened during low-liquidity hours, which amplified the price drop and caused a cascade of sell-offs. Mullin stressed that neither the Mantra team nor its key investors were responsible, stating that the core tokenomics of the project remain intact and the crash was external in nature.

Accusations and Denials

Despite these statements, suspicions of insider dumping quickly circulated. On-chain analytics from Lookonchain identified 43.6 million OM tokens, worth $227M, being deposited into major exchanges by 17 wallets prior to the crash. Two wallets were speculated to be linked to Laser Digital (as marked as “Laser Digital?” on Lookonchain’s investigation posts).

Lookonchain’s Apr 13, 2025 report on key OM transfers

The entity is a Mantra investor, and they have thus far strongly denied involvement. Shorooq Partners, another backer, also denied any token sales, and insisted on the legitimacy of their holdings. In an Apr 14, 2025 statement, they said, “Neither Shorooq, its funds, founding partners, nor MANTRA’s management team sold OM tokens in the lead-up to or during this crash.” Regardless, there are numerous skeptics doubting the denials of these major OM stakeholders.

From a social volume perspective, the reactions from the retail crowd were immediate … but, of course, not until after the price plummeted. Meanwhile, X and Telegram saw immediate discussions and concern over the crash, while Reddit’s reactions came pouring in on a handful of quick viral posts a few hours later.

Social volume of “Mantra” and “OM” across Telegram, Reddit, and X over the past month

A Crisis of Confidence

The lack of warning before the price drop, paired with the disappearance of Mantra’s Telegram group shortly after the crash, fueled speculation of a rug pull or coordinated manipulation. Critics accused the Mantra team of deleting communication channels to avoid backlash. While Mullin insisted the Telegram removal was unrelated, trust in the project took a major hit, as many investors voiced outrage over the lack of transparency.

Ratio (gold) of positive vs. negative commentary toward OM across social media along with positive (green) negative (red) posts

Exchange Behavior and Market Mechanics

Several major exchanges, including Binance and OKX, were implicated in the aftermath. OKX acknowledged that it was investigating the situation, and flagged suspicious activity dating back to last month. It reported that changes in OM’s tokenomics and large-scale deposits had raised concerns well before the crash. Combined with bot-driven sell-offs during a liquidity drought, these activities resulted in a chain reaction of long position liquidations. From Santiment’s data, however, the total ratio of supply available on exchanges has remained surprisingly stable at around 72%, both before and after the crash.

Further Data Anomalies

The total open interest across exchanges for OM was sitting at approximately $276.1M the day before the crash, but by the end of market close on Apr 13, 2025, there was only $67.6M remaining. This amounted to a whopping open interest liquidation of $208.5M, a 75.5% drop, as shown in the image below:

Total open interest and aggregated funding rates by exchange for OM over the past month

At one point, more than $46M in leveraged long positions were liquidated on April 13 alone. At the peak of the sell-off, OM traded as low as $0.37, and trading volume surged across Binance, OKX, Bybit and Bitget. At one point, OKX held 130M OM tokens, which made up approximately 14% of the entire circulating supply. According to funding rate data (also shown in the screenshot above), we see a large ratio of shorting compared to longing right now, which is fairly typical after drops that are even a fraction of this magnitude.

For comparison, Mantra’s plummet, though obviously significant, was not quite on the level of LUNA. Though this OM drop has hurt many, that infamous crash from July, 2022, was far more painful to investors (with a $7.9B loss in total open interest, a 99.8% drop).

A Fragile Recovery Begins

By April 15, OM had modestly recovered to around $0.73, up from its low but still down over 85% from pre-crash levels. In an AMA session hosted by Cointelegraph, Mullin promised that the Mantra team was working on a recovery plan, including a proposed token buyback, potential burns and improved community engagement. He admitted that these plans were still being developed, and that restoring confidence would take time.

Helen Partz’s statement that Mantra CEO John Mullin denied insider dumping, and link to Cointelegraph article

Ecosystem Fund and Liquidity Support

Mantra’s $109M Ecosystem Fund (MEF), launched on April 7 with backing from strategic investors like Laser Digital and Shorooq Partners, is now being positioned as a recovery tool. Mullin clarified that the fund includes dollar commitments, not just OM tokens, and will support developer grants, marketing campaigns and strategic partnerships to help rebuild the Mantra ecosystem and prevent further collapse.

Victor Naranjo’s mention of John Mullin’s OM token recovery process, as mentioned in his “Ask Me Anything”

Nevertheless, despite reassurances, investor scrutiny remains high. Critics argue that OM’s collapse exposed weaknesses in the project’s collateral management, as well as overreliance on centralized exchanges. Others questioned how such a severe drop could happen if the project was as “fundamentally strong” as it had claimed. OKX’s investigation and “risk warning” attributions to the token have only added to the doubt surrounding the project's internal structure and leadership.

Official announcement by OKX regarding Mantra’s price crash and risk warning on Apr 14, 2025

The Rug Pull Debate

Whether OM's collapse was caused by negligence, poor timing or something more malicious remains a hot topic. Many compare the situation to the infamous LUNA crash, which wiped out $60 billion in market value and led to criminal charges against its founder, Do Kwon. While no hard evidence of fraud has surfaced, the timing, magnitude and aftermath of the OM crash have left a lingering sense of mistrust.

In the meantime, Mantra's leadership insists they’re committed to transparency and rebuilding trust. Mullin emphasized the team’s willingness to answer community questions and push forward with a recovery strategy. Still, in the crypto space, reputational damage can be difficult to repair. Whether OM can recover its price, as well as win back market confidence, remains to be seen.

XRP ETF Momentum Builds: A New Era For Ripple Investors?

Shifting gears and pivoting to more positive news, XRP has emerged as one of the top contenders for the next spot crypto ETF approval in the US, thanks to a surge in its market liquidity. According to Kaiko Indices, XRP now holds the highest average 1% market depth among major altcoins on vetted exchanges. This means XRP has more stable pricing and lower for large trades, a crucial element in the efficient functioning of ETFs.

Mention frequency of XRP ETFs across social media over the past 3 months

Teucrium’s Breakthrough Launch

On April 8, Teucrium launched the first US-based XRP exchange-traded fund, albeit a 2x leveraged one, under the ticker XXRP. Though not a true, physically backed XRP spot ETF, Teucrium’s fund aims to deliver twice the daily return of XRP, using swaps and European exchange-traded products as references. With over $5M in volume on launch day, it became one of Teucrium’s most successful ETF launches ever (according to their CEO), sending a strong message about investor demand for XRP-based products.

SMQKE’s summary and video clip of Teucrium’s assessment of their early XRP ETF reception and performance

ETF Filing Surge and SEC Deadlines

Grayscale, Bitwise, VanEck and several other major firms have all filed for spot XRP ETFs. Kaiko reports that XRP now leads the ETF filing race with 10 active applications, compared to five for Solana and three each for Litecoin and Dogecoin. The next major milestone is May 22, when the SEC is expected to respond to Grayscale’s XRP Spot ETF application, a decision that could significantly weigh on the altcoin’s future price performance and public perception.

Amount of cryptocurrency ETF applications to the SEC by asset, according to Kaito Research and SEC, EDGAR

Legal Victory Regulatory Clarity

XRP’s ability to reclaim US market share after years of delisting is also significant. It’s currently trading just above $2, rebounding from under $1.50 earlier in the year. Analysts are watching key resistance levels at $2.24 and $2.38 as possible breakout levels. If momentum continues, XRP could reapproach the psychological barrier of $3 and cause a significant level of FOMO.

Even though options markets on most exchanges remain slightly bearish, signaling hedging due to broader economic uncertainty, analysts say this doesn’t reflect long-term sentiment. In fact, XRP attracted over $31.8M in net exchange inflows this week, its 3rd highest week of 2025.

XRP net inflows and outflows across exchanges over the past 6 months

What sets XRP apart isn’t just market depth or the widely celebrated legal resolution with the SEC. The structure of Teucrium’s ETF, which relies on swap agreements and European benchmarks, has opened a new path for getting crypto ETFs approved — even when direct spot market instruments are still under review by regulators. Teucrium is already planning an inverse ETF to allow investors to bet on XRP declines, pending market interest.

Solana, which some see as XRP’s closest competitor in the ETF race, has seen its US market share fall to just 16%, down from 30% in 2022. In contrast, XRP’s share has been steadily climbing, suggesting a shift in institutional focus. This reversal of fortune further solidifies XRP’s positioning as a front-runner. The interest levels between the #3 and #5 market caps haven’t shown any major impact as yet, as XRP isn’t yet outpacing its near market cap competitor in either trading volume or social volume.

Comparison of social volume and trading volume for XRP Solana over the past month

While several spot ETF applications are under review, Teucrium’s successful launch of XXRP puts pressure on the SEC to approve a traditional spot product. Experts (including Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas) have stated that the odds of a spot XRP ETF approval in 2025 are "pretty high," especially with current SEC leadership more open to innovation.

Ripple’s internal projections show a tremendous increase in tokenized asset markets by 2033, from $0.6T today to $18.9T. If XRP becomes a foundational asset in that shift, its presence in ETF products could significantly accelerate adoption. Major asset managers are already treating XRP as a long-term infrastructure layer for tokenized finance.

XRP appears to be riding a wave of momentum that may soon result in a major regulatory breakthrough. With strong liquidity, a cleared legal path and institutional enthusiasm growing by the week, all eyes are on May 22, 2025. Whether it’s a leveraged fund or a fully approved spot ETF, XRP seems closer than ever to mainstream financial integration.

Looking Ahead

As the market steadies, the collapse of Mantra has reminded investors just how fragile trust in crypto can be. Coming at a time when volatility has already been heightened by global trade tensions, the abrupt unraveling of OM has stirred up fresh concerns about project legitimacy, , and the lingering vulnerabilities in DeFi ecosystems. In a month where traders were hoping for stability, OM’s downfall has instead introduced new waves of doubt just as confidence was beginning to return.

On the flip side, the XRP ETF developments have injected much-needed optimism into the space. With XRP now likely to join Bitcoin and Ethereum as the third asset represented by a spot ETF, there are signals of growing institutional acceptance of crypto beyond just the dominant players. The move has sparked speculation that other large-cap assets could be next in line, perhaps even in the coming months. For traders, this feels like a critical turning point, offering a counterweight to the fear brought on by project failures and external policy threats.

Overall, sentiment in the crypto market remains deeply polarized. Many assets are still trading at a loss compared to recent highs, with ratios showing that the majority of coins are in negative territory — a sign that recovery potential remains if macroeconomic stability returns. Much of that hinges on upcoming Federal Reserve decisions, especially around interest rates. With the next FOMC meeting set for May 7, traders are eyeing a 54% probability of a rate cut, according to CME FedWatch data. If cuts materialize alongside clearer trade resolutions, the groundwork could be laid for a strong rebound across both traditional and crypto markets.

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.