Macro Outlook for Next Week: Trump "Goes Off the Rails", Federal Reserve Officials Will Be Fully Mobilized

On April 12, the past week's "shorting America" has almost become a global consensus. In the trust crisis triggered by "Trump dictating rises and falls", American assets were sold off crazily, especially U.S. bonds and dollars. After experiencing huge fluctuations for a week, uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policy, concerns about trade tensions and potential severe economic impacts still exist. Investors will closely monitor further developments while also shifting their focus to actual economic impacts. Here are key points that markets will pay close attention to in the new week:

At 0:00 on Tuesday, FOMC voter for 2027 and Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin will give a speech on navigating through economic fog;

At 6:00 on Tuesday, FOMC voter for 2026 and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak about the role played by the Federal Reserve;

At 7:40 on Tuesday, FOMC voter for 2027 and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will deliver a speech on monetary policy;

Wednesday 10:00, China's first quarter GDP annual rate;

Thursday 0:00, FOMC voter in 2026 and Cleveland Fed President Hammock participate in a Q&A session;

Thursday 20:30, Number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending April 12th;

Thursday 1:15, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gives a speech at the Chicago Economic Club;

Thursday 7:00, FOMC voters in 2025 and Kansas Fed President Schmidt and Dallas Fed President Logan have a fireside chat about the US economy and banking industry。

In the upcoming U.S. economic data, retail sales figures for March announced on Wednesday will attract attention, as investors will closely examine the reaction of American consumers to Trump's announcement of widespread reciprocal tariffs and subsequent delay of some tariffs. According to analysts' estimates, U.S. retail sales in March are expected to increase by 1.4% month-on-month, higher than the 0.2% in February.