Polymarket shows a 60% probability of the United States falling into recession by 2025
Golden Finance reports that, according to Polymarket prediction market data, the probability of the United States falling into a recession in 2025 has risen to 60%. The total trading volume of this prediction market has reached $2.48 million, with an expiration date of February 28, 2026. Data shows that the probability in this prediction market has been steadily rising since early March, gradually climbing from around 20% to the current 60%. According to market rules, if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announces a recession within 2025 or if data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters, this prediction will be judged as "yes".
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