Goldman Sachs lowers US economic growth forecast, raises recession expectations
Goldman Sachs: The forecast for US GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 has been lowered to 0.5%, and the probability of a recession over the next 12 months has been raised from 35% to 45%. This is due to a sharp tightening of financial conditions, boycotts by foreign consumers, and ongoing surges in policy uncertainty, which may suppress capital expenditure beyond our previous assumptions.
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