Impact Of Trump's Tariffs: JPMorgan Reassesses The Probability Of Recession At 60%

JPMorgan has revised its economic forecasts for 2025, increasing the likelihood of a global recession to 60% due to the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. According to a report published this Thursday, titled “There will be Blood”, the investment bank warns that the tariffs, which will take effect next week, could plunge not only the United States but also the entire global economy into a recession.

JPMorgan warns of a 60% risk of global recession

JPMorgan analysts were caught off guard by Trump’s “extreme” economic agenda, manifested through a series of heavy import taxes , notably on the occasion of Liberation Day. Due to these taxes, which aim to reduce the U.S. trade deficit by imposing costs on trading partners, the probability of a global recession has been revised upward, from 40% to 60%.

JPMorgan estimates that these tariffs will impose significant costs on American consumers, amounting to $700 billion, which represents a tax increase equivalent to that caused by the Revenue Act of 1968, used to finance the Vietnam War. Moreover, this 22% increase in tariffs would be the largest since 1968 , with an estimated impact of 2.4% on U.S. GDP.

The negative effects of Trump’s tariffs

The impact is already visible, with a loss of $3 trillion on U.S. stock markets, highlighting the immediate negative effects of these new economic policies. Added to this are the growing tensions with the Federal Reserve.

Indeed, Jerome Powell, the chair of the Fed, is taking a different stance, emphasizing the risks of long-term economic disruption . The question arises: will these tariffs truly protect the American economy or will they worsen the effects of a global recession?

The tariffs recently imposed by Donald Trump risk provoking a 60% global recession according to JPMorgan, with deep economic consequences for the United States and their trading partners. This is why France and Europe have already mobilized to prepare a strong response . The situation thus remains tense, and the repercussions are already visible.