Grayscale’s Solana ETF Filing Fails to Boost Approval Odds on Prediction Markets

Grayscale has submitted a registration statement with the SEC to convert its Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL) into an ETF listed on NYSE Arca. 

Despite the filing, prediction markets remain unconvinced about the chances of approval.

Is a Solana ETF Approval Still Unlikely for Q2?

On Polymarket, odds for a Solana ETF approval in the second quarter of 2025 stand at just 23%. Broader expectations for any 2025 approval are at 83%, down from 92% earlier this year.

The decline reflects regulatory delays. In March, the SEC extended review timelines for several ETF applications tied to Solana, XRP, and other altcoins. 

This pattern suggests the agency may be holding off on decisions until a permanent chair takes over. Mark Uyeda, currently serving as interim chair, has not signaled a shift in stance.

Paul Atkins, Trump’s nominee to lead the agency, appeared before the Senate last week. Lawmakers questioned his involvement in crypto-related businesses, adding further uncertainty around future approvals.

Grayscale’s latest filing excludes staking, which could speed up the review process. The SEC has previously objected to staking features in ETF proposals. 

When spot Ethereum ETFs moved forward last year, Grayscale, Fidelity, and Ark Invest/21Shares all removed staking components to align with the SEC’s expectations at the time.

Under Gary Gensler’s leadership, the SEC expressed concern that proof-of-stake protocols could fall under securities law. Asset managers adjusted their applications accordingly to move forward.

Following approvals for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, several firms aim to expand their offerings to include other cryptocurrencies. They plan to offer access through traditional brokerage accounts without requiring direct asset custody.

Solana remains a strong contender due to its growing futures market in the US and a more favorable regulatory environment. Analysts view it as one of the next likely approvals if the SEC opens the door to more altcoin ETFs.