Oil Prices Are Rising, But Uncertainties Persist

During a period of volatility, crude oil experienced a spectacular turnaround, driven by major geopolitical signals. This resurgence, much more than just a technical bounce, is integrated into a broader strategic dynamic. As markets scrutinize the links between raw materials and cryptos, this development reconfigures the balances within energy markets.

A technical rebound and a geopolitical push: the immediate catalysts

On March 21, 2025, oil prices for both WTI and Brent erased their losses during the session to return to significantly higher levels. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled above $81.50, while Brent crossed the $85.00 threshold.

This movement occurred following the announcement of new U.S. sanctions targeting entities involved in delivering Iranian drones to Russia.

In response, operators reassessed supply risks, which reinforced their long positions on both crude benchmarks.

This increase is framed within a technical context deemed favorable by analysts. Several critical levels have been identified as short-term focal points:

• For WTI: resistances are located at $83.30 and $84.60, with a technical support at $80.75.
• For Brent: the main resistance is at $86.80, while the immediate support level is set at $85.00.
• Market operators remain biased toward buying, in an environment where geopolitical dynamics amplify technical signals.
• A support materialized by sanctions strengthens the bullish sentiment in the short term.

The combination of rising geopolitical tensions and pronounced technical signals creates a favorable climate for the continuation of an upward movement in oil markets .

A fragile dynamic between fundamentals and contradictory signals

While oil markets have welcomed recent developments with optimism, some signals suggest a more complex situation in the medium term. The current trend remains largely supported by the anticipation of a tightening supply, rather than an explosion in demand.

A confidence that, although buoyed by expectations, remains vulnerable to external variables, notably upcoming OPEC+ decisions, changes in U.S. inventories, and economic performance in China. The lack of clear macroeconomic indicators in the very short term makes any projection uncertain.

In parallel, another segment of the energy market, that of natural gas, is experiencing an inverse dynamic. Gas prices continue their decline, fueled by increased selling pressure and the absence of bullish technical catalysts.

This energy divergence highlights a more nuanced reading of the markets, where not all raw materials follow a uniform trajectory, and where fundamentals gradually prevail over speculative movements.

The future largely depends on the evolution of geopolitical tensions, as well as the positioning of major investors in derivative markets. If the current rise in crude prices were to be confirmed, it could enhance the attractiveness of oil as a safe haven or arbitrage asset amid overall uncertainty. Conversely, a return to volatility or a weakening of demand could quickly lead to a technical pullback, as illustrated by the impact of tensions within OPEC on prices .