Will Toncoin’s Recent Momentum Lead to Further Gains?

• Toncoin is experiencing a pivotal moment as it navigates recent developments surrounding Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s legal status.

• The aftermath of Durov’s release shows promising metrics despite a slight cooling in Toncoin’s price, indicating resiliency among holders.

• A quote from Durov reflects the sentiment, stating, “It feels great to be home,” which may bode well for investor confidence in the crypto asset.

This article delves into Toncoin’s recent price movements, the effects of Pavel Durov’s release, and on-chain metrics indicating potential for future growth.

Toncoin’s rally slows after weekend surge

Toncoin (TON) saw a sharp recovery in recent days, briefly rallying from $2.59 to $3.66 — an over 40% gain — following news of Durov’s travel approval. However, the bullish momentum has begun to cool, with Toncoin trading at $3.41 at press time, down 1.25% in the last 24 hours. The RSI has dropped from overbought levels and sat at 53.31, signaling weakening buying pressure.

Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) remained negative at -835K, suggesting that recent gains may have lacked strong accumulation. Volume spikes seen during the weekend were tapering, indicating potential hesitation among traders. Unless broader participation picks up, TON risks slipping into consolidation or a short-term retracement.

Profitability and on-chain valuation signal underlying strength

Source: IntoTheBlock

Toncoin’s profitability metrics suggest strong holder confidence, with 73.82% of tokens “in the money” — indicating most holders bought below the press time price of $3.48. Only 12.25% of addresses remained “out of the money,” indicating minimal overhead resistance.

Source: IntoTheBlock

Meanwhile, the NVT ratio has shown volatile swings, but a clear decline in early March followed by a price breakout suggests undervaluation was corrected. As the price surged from March 13 to 15, the NVT ratio dipped, indicating that transaction volumes supported the rally. With NVT rising again and a majority of addresses in profit, TON appears structurally resilient, although further upside may depend on sustaining high transaction volumes.

Will TON’s rally persevere?

Source: DeFiLlama

According to DeFiLlama, TON’s Total Value Locked (TVL) surged from $140M to nearly $170M between March 15-17, reflecting renewed investor confidence. Simultaneously, Santiment data shows a sharp spike in whale transactions and sustained high social volume just ahead of the price breakout.

Source: Santiment

Surging on-chain activity and social buzz typically signals strong speculative momentum. The price also broke above $3.40 with increasing volume – further validating the rally. While short-term pullbacks are possible, it appears that TON’s uptrend has legs. Unless sentiment sharply reverses or macro conditions shift, Toncoin looks poised to maintain its bullish trajectory.

Conclusion

In summary, Toncoin is at a crucial juncture, driven by recent news surrounding Pavel Durov and underpinned by strong on-chain metrics. With increasing profitability and positive investor sentiment reflected in rising TVL, the token’s future looks promising. Investors should keep an eye on market conditions and on-chain activity as indicators of Toncoin’s potential resilience and continued upward movement.