Bitcoin Price Prediction: 4% Chance Of Price Surge To $1M But…

In recent news, Bitcoin price prediction from Polymarket has suggested a chance for a surge.

The first quarter of 2025 is almost over and it is abundantly clear that Bitcoin price sentiment has completely shifted.

Just a few months ago, there was a lot of optimism that BTC could rally as high as $1 million by the end of 2025.

Fast forward to the present and the hopes of a $1 million Bitcoin price tag have slumped sharply.

Polymarket predicts a 4% chance that it could rally to $1 million. The prediction aligns with a gloomier outlook now that the political class has cast a dark cloud on the economy as evident by the recent market crash.

Interestingly, the market also does not expect Bitcoin prices to dip very low.

Polymarket predicted a 34% change that BTC will drop to $50,000 before the end of the year.

The same platform also predicts a 50% chance that Bitcoin could rally over $120,000.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Is Bull Run Over? Here’s What Data Says

There have been concerns that Bitcoin’s local top in December may have been a cycle top.

These concerns were fueled by the liquidity outflows observed in the market.

Especially on account of the prevailing unfavorable political-economic environment.

Bitcoin price performance has been bearish since its January peak and this brings us to the other main reason for the concerns.

Bitcoin could be on the verge of dipping below a key price resistance line.

BTC’s weekly chart highlights an ascending resistance that previously acted as a peak indicator until price broke through in November last year.

Bitcoin price action/ source: TradingView

Price has since retraced and the same ascending resistance could now shift into a support level.

However, many analysts believe that a crossing below the same line could signal that the January peak was a cycle top.

Eyes on the Bitcoin Post-Halving Rally Window

But what if Bitcoin bounces back? How long does the market have until the end of the current cycle?

Historical data reveals that a cycle top occurs 12 to 18 months after each halving.

It is now 11 months since the last halving, hence there is about a 7-month window for Bitcoin to achieve another major rally and a cycle top.

At least if the latest top in December was not it.

Source: X

Although the possibility of a rally in the coming months aligns with the halving timing, parallels have been drawn between now and the 2021 peak.

Could price struggle to reach the previous top or will there be a double top just as was the case in 2021?

Institutional and government involvement this time suggests that things could be a bit spicier than they were in the previous rally.

Nevertheless, there is a decent chance that Bitcoin price might at its peak this year align with the Polymarket’s prediction.