Bitcoin Price Analysis: Balancing Long-Term Optimism with Short-Term Sell-Offs
Decoding Recent Bitcoin Market Trends: Dissecting the Struggle Between Long-term Investors' Confidence and Short-term Traders' Panic
Key Points
- Bitcoin’s short-term metrics indicate a possible price drop below $80k due to lack of buying pressure.
- Medium to long-term metrics show confidence among holders, suggesting potential for recovery.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) was experiencing a downtrend after losing its $92,000-support level in late February.
Technical indicators such as the On-Balance Volume (OBV) revealed that selling pressure was dominant, indicating potential further losses.
Decreasing Demand for Bitcoin
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that the apparent demand for Bitcoin has been declining since December. The apparent Bitcoin demand chart compares the new supply to the supply that has been inactive for a year, identifying whether the new BTC is being absorbed into the market due to demand or if there is a lack of buying pressure.
The apparent demand ratio fell below zero towards the end of February, coinciding with the loss of the $92k support, and it has remained negative since.
Bearish Short-Term, Hopeful Long-Term
Whale holders with a holding period of less than 155 days, known as short-term holders (STHs), experienced unrealized losses in late February as the price continued its downtrend.
STH whales’ unrealized losses reached a record high on 11 March, suggesting the possibility of further selling to prevent greater losses and creating a fearful sentiment in the market.
The sum coin age distribution, a metric which analyzes the age of Bitcoin’s unspent transaction output (UTXO), gives more weight to older coins. Rising values within these age bands indicate HODL behavior or accumulation, while falling values suggest distribution and increased sell pressure.
Since late January, the 1 month-18-month age bands have generally shown increased holding and accumulation behavior. This increase in holding sentiment across different age bands is a positive sign.
While short-term metrics indicate that recent, large BTC buyers were deep underwater and there was a lack of immediate buying pressure to absorb the supply, medium to long-term holders appeared to retain some confidence, based on the SCA distribution.
However, until the short-term pressure eases, Bitcoin could potentially see another price drop below $80k.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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