Bitcoin on thin ice, is this a déjà vu or a disaster?

Hear me out, Bitcoin traders! You think you’ve seen it all, but history might just be repeating itself.

The economic situation is eerily similar to 2018, and I’m not talking about a gentle breeze, I’m talking about a Category 5 hurricane.

It was bad. It will be bad again?

We’re barely into the new year, and market volatility is off the charts. Bitcoin has taken a 22% hit from its all-time high of $109,000.

Now, you might recall the 2016-17 bull run, where Bitcoin still managed a 122.8% return despite a rocky start.

Bitcoin’s 22% drawdown isn’t unusual for a bull market.

What’s different? Valuation metrics signal a deeper correction than usual.

In 2016-17, similar drops didn’t trigger this level of bearish signals—this time might be different. pic.twitter.com/6xSRniQaje

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 11, 2025

But this time, the drop feels different. It’s like the whole market is holding its breath, waiting for the other shoe to drop.

In 2018, Bitcoin crashed by 72% for the year, bottoming out at $3,740.50. What triggered this free fall?

Trump’s trade war with China and tariffs. Inflation spiked, and by mid-Q2, Bitcoin had plummeted 40% from its April high.

The writing on the wall

Fast-forward to today, and we’re seeing similar macro pressures. The U.S. is staring down $7 trillion in debt refinancing, and investors are flocking to safe-haven assets like bonds.

The bond market is sucking up liquidity, leaving risk assets like Bitcoin high and dry.

Glassnode’s latest report also paints a grim picture. Bitcoin’s market structure has shifted from accumulation to distribution, with consistent sell pressure since January.

The Accumulation Trend Score is barely above 0, and “buy-the-dip” activity has all but disappeared below $92,000.

Short-Term Holders are selling at a loss, a sign of capitulation. This isn’t just a minor correction, it’s a full-blown risk-off sentiment.

Déjà vu or disaster?

The current scenario is starting to look a lot like 2018 all over again. Extended distribution led to prolonged downward movements back then, and it could happen again.

Bitcoin needs strong support levels to stabilize, but right now, buyers are hesitant to jump in. So, is Bitcoin on the verge of another crash?

The signs are there, and if you’re not paying attention, you might just find yourself on the wrong side of history.

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Disclosure:This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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