Analytics Firm Comments on Bitcoin’s Future as Recession Worries and Trump’s Tariff Crisis Continue

The US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve proposal remains a significant development despite renewed concerns about a potential recession, according to analysts at K33 Research.

While some market participants see President Donald Trump’s latest executive order as overshadowed by economic uncertainty, K33 analysts insist the initiative is far from insignificant.

K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde and Senior Analyst David Zimmerman noted in a report that the ETH/BTC ratio has also reached its lowest point since December 2020, highlighting Ethereum’s relative underperformance.

Analysts noted that Trump appeared unconcerned about recession risks, instead focusing on lowering U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to help the government refinancing efforts. That, combined with uncertainty about the administration’s changing stance on tariffs, led to declines in the SP 500 and Nasdaq, both of which reached their lowest levels since mid-September.

Despite these challenges, Bitcoin has gained about 13% since the presidential election, outperforming the Nasdaq and SP 500, which have both returned negative over the same period. Lunde and Zimmerman attribute this resilience to Trump’s steadfast stance on crypto, including the creation of a dedicated crypto working group and the announcement of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve last week.

“We fundamentally disagree with experts who attribute the recent sell-off to the inadequacy of the U.S. Bitcoin reserve,” the analysts wrote, adding: “This reserve represents a turning point for Bitcoin. It is an important step in legitimizing BTC as a global store of value despite widespread market volatility. While macroeconomic uncertainties persist, we see the current price environment as a strong opportunity for long-term accumulation.”

Trump’s executive order signed on March 6 officially established the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The reserve will consist of approximately 200,000 BTC ($17 billion) currently under federal surveillance due to asset seizures related to criminal and civil cases. However, some of these funds must be returned to crime victims, leaving an estimated 103,500 BTC in the reserve at its official launch. In particular, the 94,636 BTC seized in the Bitfinex attack is expected to be returned to the exchange rather than kept in the reserve.

“The most influential global superpower has signaled an end to the Bitcoin seizure sales; neither current nor future seizures will be liquidated,” the analysts wrote, adding: “Furthermore, the administration is actively exploring ways to accumulate more. This could set a precedent for other countries and signal the beginning of a new era for Bitcoin. Given these developments, we believe the current landscape is extremely favorable for long-term Bitcoin accumulation, while short-term uncertainties remain.”

*This is not investment advice.