Monte Carlo Simulation on Bitcoin Price: It Predicted the BTC Price Six Months Later – Here are the Results

Cryptocurrency analytics firm MarktQuant has released the results of a Monte Carlo simulation that forecasts the price of Bitcoin over the next six months. Based on thousands of simulated price paths, the forecast offers a range of possible outcomes that illuminate both potential gains and risks.

According to the Results, Bitcoin Could Drop Below $51,000 with a 5% Chance

According to MarktQuant, the simulation used a starting Bitcoin price of $82,655.52. The results show an average final price of $258,445.24

According to MarktQuant, the simulation used a starting Bitcoin price of $82,655.52. The results show an average final price of $258,445.24 ve bu da önemli bir potansiyel artışa işaret ediyor. Bununla birlikte, sonuç aralığı geniş olup, 5’lik yüzdelik dilim sonuç 51.430,23 dolara kadar olası bir düşüş öngörürken, 95’lik yüzdelik dilim sonuç Bitcoin’in  712.118,81 dolara kadar ulaştığını gösteriyor.

This means that in 5% of simulated scenarios, Bitcoin’s price could end up at or below this value, representing the worst-case scenario within the model.

On the other hand, the 95th percentile means that Bitcoin's price is at or below this value in 95% of simulated scenarios. This represents the best-case scenario within the model.

Monte Carlo simulation is a statistical method used to model possible future price movements by running a large number of random scenarios based on historical volatility and other market factors. It helps analysts estimate the probability of different price outcomes rather than making a single-point prediction.

*This is not investment advice.