Bitcoin’s Realized Loss Margin Hits -20%—$150K Surge Incoming

• Bitcoin Nears Key Support: The realized loss margin at -8.25% suggests growing selling pressure, with historical data indicating a potential bottom near -12%.
• If the loss margin continues declining, Bitcoin could soon reach an optimal accumulation phase for long-term investors.
• Analysts predict Bitcoin may surge to $97,704 by March 4, 2025 and $124,694 by March 29, 2025 if bullish momentum prevails.

Recent on-chain data indicates that Bitcoin’s realized loss margin stands at -8.25%, approaching a historically significant level for potential buying opportunities. Since 2022, Bitcoin has demonstrated a pattern where the best entry points have emerged when traders’ realized loss margin reaches approximately -12%. With the current margin nearing this threshold, market participants are closely monitoring for signs of a possible reversal.

Key Trends and Market Indicators

The realized loss margin at -8.25% suggests that a significant portion of traders who purchased Bitcoin within the past 1-3 months are currently in a loss position, indicating potential capitulation.

Comparisons to previous cycles reveal that when the loss margin approached -12%, Bitcoin’s price was near its local bottom before rebounding. While the current loss margin is not as deep, it suggests that downward pressure remains, but a turnaround could be on the horizon if historical trends hold.

Currently, Bitcoin price today is $ 86,031.00 with a 24-hour trading volume of $ 90.89B, market cap of $ 1.71T, and market dominance of 59.35%. During the last twenty-four hours Bitcoin experienced a price decrease of -1.07 percent. The price peak for Bitcoin occurred at $ 109,079 on January 20, 2025, yet the lowest point at $ 0.05 happened on July 17, 2010.

Bitcoin Price Outlook: Potential Rebound Ahead

If Bitcoin’s realized loss margin continues to decline toward -12%, it may signal an optimal entry point for long-term investors. Given that Bitcoin is currently priced at $86,259, with a realized price of $99,092, there remains potential downside risk before a confirmed bottom. 
Data from Coicodex show that the price of Bitcoin is predicted to rise by 13.21% and reach $ 97,704 by March 4, 2025 and rise by 44.49% reaching $ 124,694 by March 29, 2025 if positive momentum prevail.