TON Price Forecast: Historical Patterns Suggest a New All-Time High

• Toncoin’s low Sharpe ratio and rising long positions signal a potential accumulation phase, suggesting an upcoming price rally.
• Despite recent volatility, Toncoin’s technical indicators and historical patterns hint at a possible price rebound and a new all-time high.

Toncoin (TON) has shown resilience despite recent fluctuations, raising expectations for a possible new all-time high. The token has proven its strength in a volatile market, maintaining its position among a select group of altcoins that remain near their peak prices.

As reported in our previous post, Toncoin’s recent performance has been stable compared to many other altcoins. While some digital assets have seen price drops, Toncoin, alongside Bitcoin (BTC), Tron (TRX), and Solana (SOL), has managed to hold its ground. Despite a slight decrease in price over the past 24 hours, TON remains one of the few coins still close to its all-time high, which reflects its market resilience.

The Sharpe Ratio, a measure of risk-adjusted returns, gives key insights into Toncoin’s price volatility. Over the past 180 days, the Sharpe ratio has fluctuated, peaking in late 2021, mid-2022, and early 2023.

Source: CryptoQuant

These peaks coincided with price surges, suggesting that Toncoin delivered higher returns relative to its risks during those periods. However, as the Sharpe ratio declined into 2024 and 2025, it signaled increasing market volatility and decreased risk-adjusted returns.

Notably, such declines in the Sharpe ratio have historically preceded market rebounds. This pattern indicates that Toncoin might be entering another accumulation phase, which could present an optimal entry point for traders seeking favorable risk-reward setups. The Normalized Risk Metric (NRM), which mirrors this trend, has reached low-risk levels similar to past accumulation zones, confirming this view.

Long/Short Ratio: Rising Optimism Among Traders

The long/Short Ratio on Binance shows a shift toward rising long positions, signaling growing sentiment among traders. Although short positions remain acute, the increase in long positions suggests that traders are preparing for a possible breakout.

Source: Coinglass

A low Sharpe ratio, increasing long positions, and a favorable NRM suggest that Toncoin may be in the early stages of a price rally. If the trend continues, it could lead to a short squeeze, where traders caught in short positions are forced to buy back, further driving up the price.

Price Action and Key Technical Indicators

As of press time, Toncoin was trading at $3.65, having decreased slightly by 0.03% in the past 24 hours. The price has fluctuated between $3.65 and $3.53, displaying some volatility.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Additionally, technical indicators, such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI), provide additional context for the likely future price action.

The MACD indicates bearish momentum, with the MACD line currently below the signal line. However, the RSI, at 28.83, is approaching an oversold condition, suggesting that the selling pressure may be nearing its peak. A reversal in the RSI could signal a price rebound if bullish catalysts materialize in the near future.

Source: TradingView