Dogecoin Risks Major Dip to $0.14 Amid MVRV Death Cross: Is a $1 Rebound Still Possible?

Dogecoin (DOGE) has flashed a concerning technical signal that previously led to steep price corrections.

On-chain analyst Ali Martinez highlighted the development in a tweet today. He disclosed that DOGE’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio has just crossed below its 200-day moving average (MA), forming a bearish “death cross.”

Historical data suggests that this pattern has preceded significant downturns. Specifically, Dogecoin saw price declines of 26% and 44% the last two times this occurred. The latest crossover raises fears that DOGE could face another sharp correction if the pattern holds.

MVRV Death Cross and Its Impact on Dogecoin Price

The MVRV Ratio is a key metric that indicates whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market price to the average price paid by investors. A cross below the 200-day MA signals a change in market sentiment from bullish to bearish.

For context, Dogecoin’s price has seen considerable volatility in recent months, with significant rallies followed by corrections. For instance, DOGE has fallen by 2.87% today. This has worsened its 30-day performance, which now shows a substantial 35% decline.

The latest dip follows a rally to nearly $0.30 on Friday after weeks of trading below this psychological threshold. While many had hoped the Dogecoin rebound would last, bearish sentiment is again gaining traction.

The MVRV death cross suggests that holders may be entering a loss phase, potentially triggering further sell-offs and adding downward pressure on the price.

Market Outlook for DOGE

Currently trading at $0.2622, the warning of a 26% to 44% correction implies that dip buyers may target new entries at $0.194 in the best case or even $0.14683 if conditions worsen.

For context, Dogecoin last traded in this range in October 2024, emphasizing the significance of the projected decline.

While historical trends lean bearish, broader market conditions and external catalysts—such as ETF news, whale accumulation, and social media hype—could help counteract the anticipated downturn.

In response to Martinez’s tweet, analyst CryptoLax suggested that Dogecoin bulls might find support around the $0.20 psychological level, which could serve as a basis for a rebound.

However, CryptoLax cautioned that the loss of key exponential moving averages (EMAs) could lead to further declines for DOGE.

While Martinez predicts the possibility of a major crash, other analysts remain optimistic. Some predict a 150% price surge for DOGE. Cas Abbe, in particular, noted that DOGE is currently in a bullish descending channel, similar to patterns seen in Q4 2023 and Q3 2024.

Abbe pointed out that both of these previous breakouts resulted in a 150% price increase. Meanwhile, he acknowledged that the sentiment around meme coins is currently low. Yet, he emphasized that Dogecoin has been a mainstay in the crypto space for a decade and is likely to maintain its presence.

“A $1 Dogecoin is a realistic price target for this cycle,” Abbe concluded.

$DOGE is currently in a bullish descending channel, similar to Q4 2023 and Q3 2024.

In both cases, the breakout resulted in a 150%+ pump.

I know sentiment for memes is down a lot, but $DOGE has been in this space for a decade and will continue to be here.

A $1 DOGE is a… pic.twitter.com/DWNb2JHobf

— Cas Abbé (@cas_abbe) February 17, 2025