Bernstein doubles Robinhood price target after crypto-led record $1 billion Q4 revenue

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein have more than doubled their price target for Robinhood shares following the company's record quarterly revenue.

The commission-free brokerage firm reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.01 billion on Wednesday, beating the estimated $944 million after a 400% surge in crypto trading volume.

“Robinhood crushed Q4 earnings with its first $1 billion revenue quarter, led by 487% seq. QoQ growth in crypto revenues (733% YoY),” analysts at Bernstein led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. 

cryptocurrency trading represented 53% of all Robinhood transaction revenue in Q4, up from around 20% in Q3, bringing in $358 million. This was driven by a more positive crypto regulatory environment, which attracted more traders to chase crypto price action, the analysts said. User growth was also strong, reaching 25.2 million funded accounts and $193 billion in assets under custody. Additionally, new products like credit cards and advanced trading platforms are contributing to further growth, they added.

“Q4 was the election quarter and the big crypto inflection was expected,” Chhugani said. “With Robinhood now decisively turning around to positive EPS, we change our valuation approach to pure earnings based multiple (discarding sales multiple).”

Bernstein rates Robinhood stock as outperform, upgrading its price target to $105 based on a 33x multiple on its earnings per share by the end of 2026. The analysts estimate 35% EPS growth by the end of 2025 and 47% by the end of 2026 — significantly above consensus.

In November 2024, Bernstein named Robinhood as its top “crypto deregulation trade” following Donald Trump’s win in the U.S. presidential election, raising its price target at the time to $51 — a level that was subsequently met at the end of January.

Robinhood stock closed up 4.8% at $55.91 on Wednesday and is currently up around 14% in pre-market trading on Thursday, having gained more than 381% during the past year, according to TradingView.

What is the market still missing?

Bernstein argued market consensus is still missing Robinhood’s business model shifts and revenue pool expansion as the firm seeks to build a global financial ecosystem across asset classes, including equities, crypto, tokenized securities, stablecoins and prediction markets — leveraging blockchain rails to drive operating efficiency.

The analysts expect Robinhood's crypto revenues to reach $2 billion by the end of 2025 and $2.6 billion in 2026, driven by new product offerings and regulatory clarity from the pro-crypto Trump administration. Robinhood also plans to launch new tokens, staking services and stablecoins, with its proposed integration with Bitstamp later this year set to expand its global exchange presence following a $200 million deal, they noted.

Bernstein predicts bitcoin will reach a cycle-high of around $200,000 by the fourth quarter of this year, driven by strong ETF-led institutional flows, corporate treasury demand and potential bitcoin reserves by the U.S and other sovereigns — helping to fuel crypto market growth and extending the bull market into 2026.

Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Bernstein is part of the Société Générale Group, which owns 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of Robinhood. Certain affiliates of Bernstein also act as market makers or liquidity providers in the equities securities Robinhood.