Bank of America: It is expected that the Federal Reserve has ended the cycle of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year
Bank of America analysts wrote that Trump's trade, fiscal, and immigration policy agendas are expected to trigger moderate inflation, predicting these changes will be reflected in inflation in the second half of 2025. They pointed out that any additional tariffs in the coming weeks could advance this timeline. They stated: "A key question is whether policy changes will affect long-term inflation expectations." They added that market-based inflation indicators are still within historical ranges. Bank of America reiterated its position that the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle has ended, with inflation "above target," expecting overall and core CPI to increase by 0.3% month-on-month in January. They wrote: "If our forecast for January CPI is correct, then the reasons for the Federal Reserve to stand pat will further strengthen."
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