Polymarket predicts 55% chance Trump will create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve during his first 100 days
Quick Take As Donald Trump’s inauguration approaches, Polymarket shows a 55% likelihood of him signing an executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within the first 100 days of his presidency. An analyst suggested the potential implementation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is still not fully priced into the market, despite bitcoin touching a high of over $109,000 in the past 24 hours.
Ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th President of the United States later today, Polymarket’s decentralized prediction platform shows fluctuating expectations regarding cryptocurrency-related executive orders. The platform reveals that the probability of Trump signing an executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) within his first 100 days has increased from 44% to 55% in the past 24 hours.
The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) concept involves the U.S. government acquiring and holding bitcoin as a strategic asset, similar to the way gold has traditionally been used as a reserve.
Bitwise Head of Research Europe André Dragosch suggested that the potential implementation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is still not fully priced into the market, despite bitcoin touching a high of over $109,000 in the past 24 hours.
"In the medium to long term, we could see a price pattern similar to the U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trading launch, where the market was not only heading higher in anticipation of that trading launch but also after net inflows continued to push the market higher," Dragosch told The Block.
According to Senior Director at Wincent Paul Howard, regarding the likelihood of Trump signing cryptocurrency-related executive orders, "the consensus on polymarket would be there is some wait and see time to digest."
Howard further added, "A litmus test of the potential for Trump Crypto EO would be to see Trump honor his promise on Ross Ulbricht, which would further back up what we saw as sincere interest in the market from the incoming president."
Polymarket price predictions
Polymarket cryptocurrency price predictions indicate a 40% chance that bitcoin will hit $120,000 by the end of January. As for altcoins, the platform shows a 46% probability that Solana surpasses $300 by the end of the month, a 22% chance of Ethereum breaking the $4,000 psychological barrier, and a 56% likelihood of XRP surpassing $3.20 within the next week.
As Trump prepares to take office, analysts are closely watching the impact of his cryptocurrency policies. According to QCP Capital, institutional investors eagerly await clarity on the administration’s approach to crypto.
“The global ripple effects of a clear U.S. 'green light' for crypto adoption have yet to fully materialize,” the analysts said.
Trump’s first day in office is expected to see the signing of over 100 executive orders , which will include not only cryptocurrency-related directives but also initiatives to expand artificial intelligence programs, establish the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge), and declassify records surrounding the 1963 assassination of President John F. Kennedy.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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