Bitcoin Faces Downward Pressure Amid Inflation Concerns, Says Steno Research

• Macroeconomic uncertainty, including Fed policy shifts and U.S. dollar strength, continues to impact crypto market sentiment.
• Steno maintains a bullish long-term outlook, forecasting Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in 2025, driven by regulatory and macroeconomic improvements.

Bitcoin’s recent price decline could extend further, as inflationary pressures and macroeconomic instability weigh on risk assets, according to Steno Research. The firm’s latest analysis suggests that a higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on January 15 could lead to further price corrections, potentially dragging Bitcoin down to $85,000 per coin.

Since mid-December, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 10%, dropping from its peak of $106,000 to around $96,000 as of January 14.

Steno attributes this downtrend to a broader economic adjustment, where investors are recalibrating their positions in response to persistent inflation risks and shifting monetary policies.

Leveraged Markets and the Threat of Further Liquidations

Bitcoin’s derivatives markets remain overheated, with excess leverage creating vulnerabilities in the current adjustment phase. Steno warns that this leverage needs to be flushed out before Bitcoin can regain its bullish momentum.

Source:Steno Research

The stronger U.S. dollar and shifting Federal Reserve policies have exacerbated the situation. Following a positive jobs report on January 10, Bitcoin briefly fell below $93,000, as investors adjusted expectations for interest rate cuts.

CME FedWatch data now suggests that the likelihood of a rate cut in January is below 3%, signaling that the Fed may maintain its hawkish stance for longer than anticipated.

Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, noted that Bitcoin’s decline is closely linked to the U.S. dollar’s strength, which is being fueled by a more aggressive Fed policy and concerns over tariffs.

Lower interest rates typically favor risk assets like Bitcoin, but the current macroeconomic environment is creating temporary resistance for further price appreciation.

Steno’s Projections: Short-Term Weakness, Long-Term Strength

Despite the current challenges, Steno Research maintains a bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin. The firm believes that 2025 could be a record-breaking year, forecasting Bitcoin to reach $150,000 per coin under more favorable macroeconomic conditions.

Source:Steno Research

Key factors driving this optimism include:

• Regulatory clarity that fosters greater institutional adoption.
• A supportive macro environment, marked by interest rate cuts and increased liquidity.
• Post-halving market strength, as historical trends suggest that Bitcoin tends to perform well after supply reductions.

While short-term downside risks remain, Steno anticipates a significant market rebound once inflation concerns begin to subside and rate policies shift toward easing.

Spurce: Tradingview

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $96,793.37, reflecting a 5.41% increase in the last 24 hours. Its market capitalization stands at $1.91 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $58.71 billion, marking a 10.20% increase. The circulating supply is 19.81 million BTC, with a fixed maximum supply of 21 million BTC.

Bitcoin continues to display strong bullish momentum, driven by institutional inflows, growing miner confidence, and macroeconomic factors favoring digital assets. The network’s hashrate remains near all-time highs, reinforcing network security and long-term miner investment.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market has reached 51.2%, indicating sustained capital inflows as investors hedge against inflation and traditional financial uncertainty.