Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Peak in March 2025 with Severe Correction Soon After
- Bitcoin peak predicted for March 2025, followed by correction.
- Dollar liquidity boosts the market in the first quarter.
- Tax obligations in April could put pressure on the market.
The cryptocurrency market continues to rise, with Bitcoin surpassing the $100.000 mark this week, marking an significant recovery after the bearish period in late 2024. However, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has warned that this positive trend may be numbered. According to Hayes, a new peak in the market should be reached in mid-March 2025, followed by a severe correction.
At the time of publication, the price of Bitcoin was quoted at US$97.263,59 with a drop of 4,5% in the last 24 hours.
In his recent analysis, Hayes highlighted the influence of dollar liquidity on the behavior of cryptocurrencies. He noted that the increase in liquidity at the beginning of the year could sustain the growth of the crypto market in the short term. “I expect the market to reach a local peak by the end of the first quarter,” he wrote in his blog. The economist believes that the Federal Reserve will add up to $612 billion in liquidity to the market during this period, boosting the value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
However, Hayes warned of the impact of policies such as the Federal Reserve’s “quantitative tightening” (QT), which removes liquidity from financial markets. He predicts that by March, around $180 billion will be removed from the market, contributing to the crypto spike. This dynamic, according to Hayes, can be compared to the 2022 crash, when changes in the US Treasury issuance policy resulted in a significant reduction in liquidity, negatively affecting both cryptocurrencies and technology stocks.
Another point of attention is tax deadlines in the United States. Hayes pointed out that the month of April, traditionally marked by large tax obligations, could put pressure on the market, leading to a correction after the peak in March. He suggests that investors prepare to sell before this period.
Analysts like Ed Hindi of Tyr Capital corroborate this outlook, stating that Bitcoin’s support around $76.000 should hold solid, while the price could reach as high as $200.000 by 2025.
As the market heads toward a new record high, Hayes’ strategy involves betting on altcoins and DeSci projects during the rally, taking advantage of liquidity before a potential downturn.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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