Bitcoin returns to $100,000, options data suggests the market is optimistic about the future

Author: Bitpush

In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a strong rebound, with Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 for the first time since December 19, 2024, currently priced at $102,263, marking an increase of nearly 4% within 24 hours. This rebound has driven other major coins such as Ethereum and Solana to rise as well.

Perpetual Futures Funding Rate Rises

Market optimism is increasing. According to data from Coinglass, the weighted funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures on major exchanges has climbed to 0.0113% during the recent 8-hour contract period.

QCP Capital analysts downplayed the likelihood of significant catalysts for the crypto market from Trump's inauguration on January 20, noting that when Bitcoin first broke $100,000 on December 5, the funding rate for perpetual futures had surged significantly: "However, the current funding levels remain healthy, and we do not expect a squeeze-driven surge in the near term."

Crypto trader Gordon Grant also mentioned derivatives indicators.

Gordon Grant pointed out that for the third consecutive year, there has been a large volume of short-term Bitcoin call options trading at the beginning of January, which has often signaled significant price increases for Bitcoin in the past. The options market is an important tool for gauging market sentiment and predicting future trends. Active trading of call options indicates that market participants expect prices to rise.

He specifically noted that the trading volume of call options with a strike price of $103,000 expiring on January 7 exceeded 1,000 contracts, strongly suggesting that the market anticipates a price increase for Bitcoin in the short term. Grant also compared the current situation to early January 2023 and January 2024, when a large volume of call options trading prior to the launch of BlackRock's iBIT on January 10 drove BTC from $40,000 to $48,000.

Grant stated, "The market trend seems somewhat similar, especially as some traders view Trump's inauguration as a recent turning point." He pointed out that the options term structure shows a premium for dates after the inauguration, which may reflect that traders are pricing positions for potential market-moving events.

While current market signals lean towards optimism, there remains a degree of uncertainty. A key question is whether this rebound is driven by short-term speculative behavior or marks the beginning of a sustained rise for Bitcoin in 2025. This requires observing market performance from a longer time perspective.

Grant noted that the overall situation in the options market, including volatility and the skewed term structure, suggests that investors are more inclined to believe that there will be a long-term upward trend this year, rather than just short-term fluctuations, providing some reference for future market movements.

Coinbase Premium Returns to Breakeven Point

After experiencing a period of intense selling from December 18, 2024, to January 2, 2025, the premium for Bitcoin on Coinbase returned to neutral levels on January 4. CryptoQuant's anonymous Bitcoin analyst IT Tech explained in an article that the rise in premium back to breakeven indicates "a rebound in sentiment among U.S. and institutional investors."

However, it is important to note that the Coinbase premium primarily reflects the sentiment of U.S. retail investors, rather than institutional sentiment.

On-chain analyst Darkfost stated that the 30-day rolling change in retail trading volume below $10,000 has dropped to its lowest level since September 2024. With the rate of change falling below -10%, Darkfost believes this indicates a significant decline in retail interest, but this also opens up an ideal buying opportunity in the long run.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin experienced a bullish structural breakout (BOS) after closing above $97,000 last week.

Market trader Crypto Scient emphasized that $100,000 remains a key turning point for Bitcoin. This trader stated, "Unless we break above $99,000 and turn it into support, I think we will see lower prices in January. For me, the trigger condition is very simple: break and hold above $99,000, otherwise we will retest the $90,000-$88,000 area."