Polymarket's huge year: $9 billion in volume and 314,000 active traders redefine prediction markets

Polymarket had a stellar year in 2024 , achieving exponential growth across multiple metrics, including active traders, volume and open interest (OI), which reached all-time highs earlier this year. 

The platform’s cumulative trading volume surpassed $9 billion, with a monthly all-time high of $2.63 billion in November alone. Active traders reached a new peak of 314,500 in December, while open interest (OI) hit an all-time high of $510 million during the November U.S. election.

Polymarket's  monthly volume grew at a rate of 66.5% throughout the year. In January 2024, Polymarket recorded just $54 million in trading volume, but by November, this figure had risen to over $2.6 billion, representing a nearly 48x increase within the year.

However, December experienced a 34% decline in monthly trading volume compared to November, largely due to the conclusion of Polymarket’s largest-ever event, the U.S. election, in early November.

Open interest followed a similar trend to volume, peaking at $510 million in November but declining to $120 million by December, a drop of 76.5% from its record high.

Despite these declines in volume and OI, the number of monthly active traders on Polymarket continued to grow at an average rate of approximately 74% per month throughout the year.

At the beginning of the year, Polymarket had just over 4,000 active traders on the platform. Interestingly, in December, this metric continued to make a new all-time high of over 314,500 traders, contrasting with volume and OI. This shows that individual participants' appetites for betting have continued to increase despite lacking a large singular event to bet on.

While political events have historically dominated Polymarket, post-election saw a noticeable shift in user preferences, with sports-related markets emerging as the most popular sector.

The shift from politics to sports is a natural evolution for prediction markets and betting platforms like Polymarket. This transition toward shorter-term betting markets, such as individual sports games, has likely contributed to the disparity between rising active trader numbers and subdued OI. Sports markets often involve smaller bets that resolve quickly, unlike the longer-term capital commitments typically seen in political markets.

Additionally, the conclusion of the U.S. election in November resulted in an exodus of participants primarily drawn to the platform for this high-stakes event. Many of these users and their capital have not yet returned, leaving behind a core base of active traders who continue to engage with smaller, more frequent betting opportunities.

This is an excerpt from  The Block's Data & Insights newsletter . Dig into the numbers making up the industry's most thought-provoking trends.