The 8 weirdest things people bet on via Polymarket in 2024

Though Polymarket launched four years ago, the decentralized prediction platform took off in 2024.

Polymarket amassed over $8 billion in cumulative trading volume this year, largely thanks to the presidential election between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. The prediction market for that election’s winner alone surpassed $3 billion .

While politics this year bolstered Polymarket, the platform also opened other — and certainly weirder — prediction markets. Here are the most notable ones.

Honorable mentions

Users bet nearly $200,000 in total. trading volume on whether Trump would smoke marijuana with Joe Rogan on his podcast, after billionaire and Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk did so in 2018. Trump appeared on "The Joe Rogan Experience" on Oct. 26 — without consuming cannabis.

If Kamala Harris would say "brat" before August also saw nearly $67,000 in collective trading volume. The prediction market refers to the "Brat" album from UK musician Charli XCX, which not only topped music charts this summer but spurred related memes for its light green background and plain black text. Charli tweeted "Kamala IS brat" on July 21, hitting over 62 million views and 57,000 reposts for the tweet. However, Harris did not say "brat" before August, setting the outcome of the prediction market to "no."

8) Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi Nakamoto?

An HBO documentary titled “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery” promised to reveal the true identity of Bitcoin’s mysterious creator Satoshi Nakamoto in October.

A Polymarket prediction market quickly emerged for who the documentary would name. Obvious choices emerged, such as early Bitcoin developers Adam Back and Hal Finney .

Less obvious choices made the list as well, such as computer scientist Wei Dai , who did not directly contribute to Bitcoin but proposed a decentralized digital currency in 1998 that undergirded the cryptocurrency’s philosophy.

Users also contributed over $3 million in trading volume that Musk would be named Bitcoin’s creator, which, unsurprisingly, the documentary did not do. It interviewed numerous people and examined clues to hone in on early Bitcoin developer Peter Todd , who denied the claim. Other bitcoin developers, including Todd, immediately called out the missing details and flaws in the documentary's conclusion.

Todd wasn’t an option in the prediction market, which garnered over $44 million in total trading volume. Thus, no one could place the correct, specific bet. The winning result ended up being “Other/Multiple” for nearly $3.9 million.

7) Will AI be the 2024 TIME Person of the Year?

TIME Magazine bequeaths the title of “Person of the Year” to an individual, group or entity that “most affected the news and our lives, for good or ill, and embodied what was important about the year, for better or for worse,” a former magazine editor said in a 1998 issue.

The title often goes to presidents or doctors leading scientific breakthroughs , Olympians, soldiers or even “ you .” However, not all People of the Year are, in fact, people, as TIME selected  “ The Computer ” in 1982 and the " Endangered Earth " in 1989.

So, for the past two years, Polymarket users bet on whether the magazine will choose artificial intelligence as Person of the Year following the prodigious spread of generative AI in 2022.

Individuals placed bets of $40,723 and $576,563 on whether artificial intelligence would be TIME's Person of the Year in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

The humble generative chatbot lost both times. The title ended up going to American musician Taylor Swift in 2023 and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in 2024, marking his second time as Person of the Year after 2016.

6) Whether Luigi Mangione will mention “crypto” or “bitcoin” in his manifesto

Luigi Mangione, a 26-year-old man from Maryland, is in police custody under alleged charges related to the murder of Brian Thompson, CEO of the insurance firm UnitedHealthcare.

When police arrested him on Dec. 9 , he reportedly had “ writings ” on him describing his perception of the U.S. health insurance industry, according to the Maryland Coordination and Analysis Center. These writings have been referred to as a “manifesto” in the media.

Polymarket users have placed a collective $19,400 bet as to whether Mangione will include "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his manifesto. 

Though the market resolved on Dec. 13, gaining $277,658 in cumulative trading volume, the two words have not appeared in Mangione’s manifesto as of publication.

5) Will Trump say "tampon?”

Numerous prediction markets emerged this year trying to guess how many times Trump will say a certain word, in both his campaign rallies and other conversations.

At least six prediction markets looked at what Trump would say in campaign rallies in Wisconsin , North Carolina , Arizona and Pennsylvania . Combined, these rally-focused prediction markets placed $138,242 as to whether Trump would say “tampon.” The answer was no for all five except the one in Reading, Pa. on Oct. 9, where Trump did indeed say the word.

Alongside campaign rallies, Polymarket users also bet on what Trump would say in his Aug. 12 conversation with Elon Musk.

For most of the discussion, the Polymarket odds for Trump saying “tampon” stagnated around 7%. When he mentioned the word toward the end of the conversation, however, the odds skyrocketed to 100%. Users who bet on Trump saying “tampon” before the prediction market closed saw a 14-fold return .

4) How many times Elon Musk will tweet within a week

Crypto enthusiasts keep close tabs on what Musk does. This includes creating prediction markets on whether he will make good on promises, such as purchasing the new site MSNBC or if he’ll mention DOGE, the ticker for the cryptocurrency Dogecoin, in his "Saturday Night Live" monologue in May 2021 (the word did appear, but Musk's mother actually said it.)

Other predictions focus on Musk’s niche behaviors, such as how many times he will tweet within a week. To be sure, “tweeting” is language relating to X’s former name Twitter. When one posts on X now, it’s merely called a “post.”

The Block counted at least 34 prediction markets betting on how many times Musk will tweet within a week, starting as early as January 2024.

The most recent prediction market, as of publication, looks at whether Musk will tweet below 200 or more than 450 times between Dec. 6 and Dec. 13. Users placed a collective $1.1 million in bets for this market.

3) Is the Earth flat?

Polymarket lets individuals place bets on current events or items with a clear deadline, such as the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. This prediction market asking whether the earth is flat differs by asking a question most people know the answer to.

The market resolved with the answer “no," but it still drew in $1,277 in total trading volume.

And while you might think the question should really be “is the earth round?” you’d still be wrong. The earth “is actually closer to an ellipsoid,” notes the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. So keep a look out for that prediction market.

2) Will Trump do a podcast with Hawk Tuah Girl?

Haliey Welch, known as the ‘ Hawk Tuah Girl ,’ rose to internet fame after a casual street interview gained the attention of millions.

When the interviewer asked her “What’s one move in bed that makes a man go crazy every time,” Welch replied in an exaggerated Southern drawl, “You gotta give him the ‘hawk tuah’ and spit on that thing” in her reference to oral sex.

Welch’s answer subsequently went viral, with the original interview gaining 8.7 million views on YouTube, and she received the moniker “Hawk Tuah Girl.”

Her podcast, called “Talk Tuah,” includes notable public figures such as rapper Wiz Khalifa and billionaire Mark Cuban .

Though the Polymarket prediction market grew to over $43,000 in total trading volume, Welch did not interview Trump as of publication.

1) Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024?

The prediction market for this question ending Dec. 31, 2024, already gained $1.6 million in trading volume. However, other prediction markets popped up for alien existence confirmation: one for June of this year, August of last year and if it would be confirmed at all in 2023 .

Combined, users bet over $2.7 million on whether the U.S. will confirm aliens exist on Polymarket, which it has not done as of publication.