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What Santa Rally? The anticipated rally failed to materialize as Mt. Gox moved $49.3 million in BTC, triggering a selloff to 92.5k—a 14% drop from last week’s all-time high—before a rebound to reclaim 95k. Sentiment appears to be softening, with liquidity drying up toward year-end and spot ETFs seeing their third consecutive day of outflows yesterday.

MicroStrategy announced another BTC purchase of $561 million at an average price of 106,662, marking its seventh consecutive week of buying. However, this represents its smallest purchase in recent weeks, prompting questions about its appetite at these levels.

Interestingly, despite the slide, there was no notable rush to cover gamma, with front-end vols staying subdued. Ahead of Friday’s Mega Expiry, the market appears primed for volatility, with vol flies elevated at +2.0—indicating it has yet to find its footing.

With traditional markets winding down with shortened hours or closures, Bitcoin’s 24/7 nature could serve as a key outlet for views on extraordinary events. For instance, BTC/KRW recently reflected market responses to President Yoon’s martial law declaration. Hence, we remain cautious of potential gap moves.