Bitcoin trader sees ‘larger’ BTC price dip next month as $100K holds

Bitcoin ( BTC ) circled $102,000 into the Dec. 19 Wall Street open as crypto sentiment cautiously recovered from a new macro scare.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Fed halts Bitcoin bull market in its tracks

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed 2% BTC price gains versus the daily open.

Bitcoin had joined a crypto and risk-asset sell-off at the hands of the US Federal Reserve the day prior, during which BTC/USD fell to lows of $98,695 on Bitstamp.

The blow came from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who signaled reluctance over future interest rate cuts amid a rebound in various inflation gauges.

“With today’s action, we have lowered our policy rate by a full percentage point from its peak, and our policy stance is now significantly less restrictive,” he said in a prepared statement at the press conference that followed the move to cut the benchmark interest rate by 0.25%.

“We can therefore be more cautious as we consider further adjustments to our policy rate.”

Both the SP 500 and Nasdaq 100 ended the day’s trading session down by around 3% as a result.

The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool nonetheless put the odds of a further rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in January at just 8.6%.

Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group

Analyzing low-timeframe BTC price action, popular trader Skew remained modestly upbeat about Bitcoin’s recovery.

“So far no trend invalidation even with the sweep of last weeks low market demand,” he wrote in part of an X post about the four-hour chart.

“Would like to see price remaining strong above VAH here sustained passive demand under price for a recovery / higher.”

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Skew/X

Skew referred to the value area high, or VAH, which made the area above $101,500 important to hold.

BTC price risks January pullback

Others recommended taking a longer-term view amid heightened volatility, with Bitcoin still up 6% in December.

Related: Crypto ‘eating TradFi’s lunch’ as $5.75B Coinbase revenue beats Nasdaq

“BTC Price action is choppy and doesn’t look pretty. Yet, it’s still trending up slowly,” fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades continued in part of his own X post.

Daan Crypto Trades acknowledged the cathartic effect of mass liquidations accompanying the market downturn. Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass put the cross-crypto total for the 24 hours to the time of writing at $800 million.

“Back in 2021, Wednesday was usually the day where we saw a lot of liquidations,” he added about market behavior during Bitcoin’s previous bull market. 

“It almost became a trend at some point. Up only -> Mid week liquidation wicks -> Retrace. Would be interesting to see if that repeats.”

Crypto liquidations (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

More bearish predictions nonetheless came from those wary of the macro implications. Trader and analyst Mark Cullen warned of a “larger Bitcoin pullback” that is potentially still to come.

“BTC is still holding 100k which is key to seeing maybe 1 more push before the bigger correction hits,” he warned X followers, predicting such a scenario playing out in January.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Mark Cullen/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.