How Many Times Will the FED Cut Interest Rates in 2025? When Will It Stop? Here are the Renowned Economist’s Predictions

The Fed will be cautious about cutting interest rates in 2025 and will pause its quantitative easing cycle after June, according to Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams.

Speaking at a finance panel, Adams outlined his predictions by suggesting the Fed will cut rates twice in 2025, in March and June, before adopting a “wait and see” approach for the rest of the year.

“The Fed signaled at its September meeting that they are looking to lower interest rates to a less restrictive level,” Adams said, noting that inflation has slowed to between 2.5% and 3%, but is still above the 2% target. That, combined with broader economic stability, reduces the need for interest rates to remain around 5%, he said.

Adams also pointed to external factors influencing the Fed's cautious stance, including the prospect of a new round of fiscal stimulus and potential upward pressure on goods prices due to higher tariffs in 2025.

These dynamics could leave U.S. interest rates just below 4% by the end of 2025, with Comerica setting its neutral rate at 2.5% to 3%.

The Fed’s potential break comes after a period of easing financial conditions and resilient market performance. While inflation has been tempered by lower goods prices and modest wage growth, concerns remain about the sustainability of these trends.

*This is not investment advice.