Bitcoin’s climb toward $100,000 has seen a significant amount of offloads from long-term holders, which some analysts say signals a potential top that could turn markets bearish and catch traders offside when buy-side demand starts to wane.

“It’s a game of musical chairs: enjoy the ride, but be prepared when the music stops,” CryptoQuant contributor Maartuun said in a Dec. 8 X post .

Long-term hodlers are offloading their Bitcoin

Since Nov. 8, long-term holders — wallets who have held Bitcoin ( BTC )  for at least 155 days — have sold 827,783 BTC worth around $82.6 billion at its current price of around $99,200.

‘Potential top’ for Bitcoin as long-term holders sell 828K BTC in 30 days image 0

Source: Maartuun

Maartuun highlighted the 149,800 BTC purchased by Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy and the 84,193 BTC worth of inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the same period. 

Still, he said that these are the equivalent of just 30% of what’s being sold by long-term holders.

“The overall market is much larger than just them,” he said.

Maartuun suggested that Bitcoin is maintaining its strength despite the strong sell pressure from long-term holders due to retail demand also reaching its “yearly highs,” according to CryptoQuant’s retail demand 30-day change chart.

‘Potential top’ for Bitcoin as long-term holders sell 828K BTC in 30 days image 1

Source: Maartuun

“Retail is also involved in futures trading,” he said. CoinGlass shows Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) — a metric tracking the total number of unsettled Bitcoin derivative contracts such as options and futures — is $61.2 billion at the time of publication.

Long-term Bitcoin holders sitting on significant unrealized profits

Maartuun also claimed that the sell-side risk ratio and the net taker volume may indicate “a top.”

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According to Bitbo data , the Long Term Holder realized price — the average price paid by long-term Bitcoin holders — is $24,481, representing about a 400% average gain for long-term holders.

‘Potential top’ for Bitcoin as long-term holders sell 828K BTC in 30 days image 2

Source: Maartuun

At the time of publication, Bitcoin’s price was $99,203, according to CoinMarketCap.

On Dec. 6, Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts said liquidity conditions , as expressed by his Bitcoin MSI macro model, suggest pain may come next.

“Bitcoin has hit new ATHs in the face of a deteriorating liquidity backdrop,” he said.

Coutt said if conditions “worsen, the rally, while euphoric, can only last for a limited time.”

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.