Data Interpretation PNUT's On-Chain Chips: Some Missed 34 Million, While Others Snatched 13 Million

Author: Frank, PANews

The past November was destined to be a month where Bitcoin danced with MEME. PNUT became the brightest star in the MEME track in November, creating a record of reaching a market value of over $2 billion in a single month from zero, and generating countless wealth myths for diamond hands and smart money.

Setting aside the support from news such as Musk's endorsements and listings on mainstream exchanges like Binance, how did those smart money and diamond hands manage to seize this golden project? What is the current state of chip distribution on-chain? PANews conducted extensive data analysis on the top 1000 holding addresses of PNUT on-chain, attempting to unveil the secrets behind these leading chips.

First, an explanation of the data sources and methods used in this analysis. The analysis focuses on the top 1000 holding addresses on-chain as of November 28. Due to issues with transaction data sources, addresses belonging to bots, exchanges, trading pools, or anomalous addresses were excluded, resulting in an analysis of approximately 624 addresses regarding their first buy or transfer (price, amount), first sell or transfer (price, amount), some related addresses, some large holder addresses, and early on-chain trading addresses.

Diamond Hands Faster than Musk

First Buy Time Distribution Chart

Through analysis, PANews found that the initial buy times of these large holders were mostly concentrated between November 2 and November 4. Among them, the most addresses bought on November 3, totaling 159. November 2 followed closely with 138 addresses making their first purchases that day. From the timeline, the Peanut event was first mentioned by Musk in the early hours of November 3.

However, these diamond hands made their purchases even earlier. In fact, the event occurred on October 31, and the PNUT token was also born on that day. By November 2, several media outlets in the U.S. began to stir discussions about "Mouse Lives Matter," indicating that many smart money players were not just following Musk but were also keeping a close eye on Western hot topics and events.

After Musk's endorsement, it was indeed observed that the most smart money addresses chose to enter during this time frame.

Entering When Others Panic

Looking at the buying prices, nearly half of the smart money chose to make their first purchases of PNUT in the price range of $0.05 to $0.1.

From the chart, the yellow box essentially represents the time and price range where these top 1000 large holder addresses made the most purchases. In fact, before this price range, PNUT had already experienced two price surges, with its market value reaching between $50 million and $100 million. Normally, a MEME coin surging to a market value of $50 million to $100 million would be a time for many to exit, but it seems that the real main force chose to enter here instead. This suggests that the secret of smart money may not lie in seizing early chips but rather in choosing to enter when others are too afraid to do so.

Additionally, looking at the total amount of money bought on various dates, the main inflows of the top 1000 players were concentrated between November 2 to 4 and November 11 to 14. The first period was when PNUT just started gaining traction, with most of the main funds laying out their positions during this phase. The second phase was when exchanges like Binance announced the listing of PNUT, and it was clear that another group of main players saw certainty and decided to enter. However, by this time, PNUT's market value was already close to $1 billion, making the buying volume relatively insignificant. Instead, it can be seen that the period from November 2 to 4 was the clear entry point for the main players.

Large Holders Generally Hold Longer

From the holding habits, the main holders' holding time is significantly longer than that of retail investors. Among the analyzed addresses, the average holding time was 39 hours, and this does not account for addresses that have not sold since their purchase; if included, the average holding time would be even higher.

In terms of selling or transferring prices, the first sell or transfer prices were also mostly concentrated in the $0.05 to $0.1 price range. However, one factor to consider here is that many large holder addresses will immediately distribute tokens to new addresses after buying, which does not count as selling, so the reference significance of the selling price range here is limited. Further analysis by PANews on individual large holder addresses found that several addresses holding over $10 million have not sold to date.

Who Are the True Diamond Hands? Some Addresses Earn Over Ten Million

During the investigation, PANews discovered that several addresses' tokens originated from some of the same addresses. These addresses are primarily new addresses used by the true large holders to diversify their funds. In response, PANews conducted some investigations into these underlying true large holders.

Among these large holder addresses, the most eye-catching is the address J8ZWHVX5CjZWcHb1fqNVSiwjRy21WFj8mxvFDddjbHxv (hereinafter referred to as "J8ZWH").

This address first bought 151,300 PNUT on 11-01-2024 for 10 SOL, and then continuously added to its position, ultimately holding 28 million PNUT, with an average holding price of about $0.0001. Calculating at a maximum price of $2.46, its return could reach 24,600 times. On November 2, it sold 15.97 million PNUT for a profit of $109,371. It currently still holds nearly $12.6 million worth of PNUT.

Another address, 2h7s3FpSvc6v2oHke6Uqg191B5fPCeFTmMGnh5oPWhX7 (tonkadriving.sol), is also quite legendary. This address discovered PNUT on November 1 and frantically invested funds to buy, spending $67,000 to acquire 9.15 million PNUT, when PNUT's market value was only about $7.3 million. It completed its position within half an hour, and during its buying process, it temporarily pushed the token price up to $0.01. Subsequently, other players began to sell, while tonkadriving.sol continuously absorbed chips, ultimately completing its initial position at an average price of $0.007.

On November 3, tonkadriving.sol even sent 4 million PNUT to the creator of PNUT, worth $244,000 at the time. If tonkadriving.sol knew that these tokens would eventually be worth over $10 million, would it regret this donation?

Early On-Chain Players Turned 22U into 2.91 Million Due to Forgetfulness

For MEME players, many prefer to seize on-chain opportunities, as the earlier they buy, the higher the return. PANews analyzed 276 on-chain addresses involved in early trading and found that only 4 addresses ultimately appeared in the top 1000 holdings.

For instance, the address B8S2aupPvX3ARWgyEYS1gbHc3jTb2Ta4Q2i37HUewGnf used two addresses to purchase during the early trading, spending about $280 to buy 13.75 million PNUT tokens, and sold almost all of these tokens for $5,657 within the next two days. By November 16, this address spent $148,000 to buy back 86,000 PNUT. Based on the earliest holdings, it missed out on a maximum of $34.1 million.

The strongest early player was gUPH84k3YhMSjXSfXrTAUzCjuqQinQMZg9TkAkoSR77, which spent $22 to buy 2.37 million PNUT during the early trading and has not traded since. Currently, these tokens are worth about $2.91 million. Its return rate is as high as 132,000 times, making it a model for the 10U war god. However, from trading habits, this address is highly likely to be a trading bot address, currently still engaged in high-frequency trading of hundreds of dollars. Perhaps the owner of the address has long forgotten that their casual action has yielded unimaginable returns. Another on-chain address, CrjPMnpDyJ16qpo1hR74iEQ2bypvAeMqxmxm42tB9ppr, also purchased for $22, choosing to sell a fixed amount of 5,902 each time, having sold $194,000 to date, with the account still holding tokens worth about $82,000.

It seems that the way to secure the highest returns is to forget about it, but not completely forget.

In analyzing PNUT, we saw many lucky stories of sudden wealth, as well as numerous regrets. Many addresses had very low early holding costs but almost all sold out before PNUT truly surged. From trading habits, we can see the styles of these players; many of them do not have large amounts of capital and choose to liquidate everything when their investments grow from a few dozen dollars to several thousand. Little do they know that they missed out on tens of millions of dollars in returns, and this could very well be the biggest opportunity of their trading careers.

In contrast, accounts with large funds tend to be much calmer. They invest tens of thousands to millions of dollars but choose to hold steady, at most opting to withdraw their principal when profits are substantial. The rest is just letting the bullets fly for a while. Perhaps a saying fits here: one can only earn the money within their understanding.

But that said, for ordinary people, making dozens of times in a single trade is already a challenge. Moreover, without the release of these chips, PNUT might have struggled to become the MEME king of November.