The cryptocurrency market’s bullish momentum may slow after United States President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025, according to data on historical market performance during US election years.

In the US, stocks — and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin ( BTC ) — perform well in the weeks after a presidential election and then cool off once the President-elect takes office, according to data from Bloomberg and researcher Macrobond Financial.

This is especially pronounced when the incumbent president is a Republican, according to data from TS Lombard, a research group. The Republican party is typically seen as more business-friendly, sparking greater post-election market euphoria.

“[I]nvestors should tactically fade a postelection rally should the S&P 500 exceed our 6100 year-end bull case target, which roughly aligns with a +5% index move from election day,” Scott Chronert, Citi’s US equity strategist, reportedly wrote in a November research note.

The data shows market performance rebounding after an initial post-inauguration correction.

Trump’s inauguration could mark local top for crypto, research shows image 0

Source: Eric Soda

Related: Investors see crypto markets peaking in H2 2025: Survey

Post-election rally

As of Dec. 2, the S&P 500 index stands at 6,047, a nearly 4.5% gain since Nov. 5, according to Google Finance.

Cryptocurrencies saw big gains after Trump’s election victory, as many say his win will benefit the industry,  Cointelegraph Research said .

Bitcoin’s price bump has been especially pronounced, with a more than 30% post-election gain for the world’s most popular cryptocurrency. Solana ( SOL ) clocked similar gains.

Other analysts believe Bitcoin’s rally will continue post-inauguration, though there will be bumps along the way. According to Ryan Lee, the chief analyst at Bitget Research, the BTC price could correct as deep as 30% before resuming its bullish run.

“Historical data trends show that Bitcoin may still correct as much as 30% before it reaches its cyclical top,” the analyst told Cointelegrap h on Nov. 27.

Such a correction would hypothetically tank Bitcoin to around $70,000 per coin.

Investors expect the cryptocurrency bull run to continue into 2025 and peak in the second half of the year, MV Global, a Web3 investing firm, told Cointelegraph .

Trump’s inauguration could mark local top for crypto, research shows image 1

Source: TS Lombard

Weakening correlations?

Historically, Bitcoin has been “considered a high-risk asset closely linked to US equities” —particularly Nasdaq, an index of US technology stocks — but that relationship has weakened in recent months, according to Binance Research.

“Since March 2024, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq on a 30-day rolling basis dropped to 0.46, one of the lowest levels in five years,” Binance said.

Still, a nearly 50% correlation with US stocks means substantial exposure for BTC to any broader market downturn.

Ether’s ( ETH ) correlation with the Nasdaq is even higher, at around 0.66, according to data from MacroAxis.com.

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