Altcoins will keep swinging between big rallies and pullbacks until Bitcoin confirms a breakout past the $100,000 mark, according to a crypto analyst.

“We’re really waiting to see that exuberant move, and then we’ll look at that rotation of capital,” crypto exchange Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph at Aus Crypto Con 2024.

Altcoins will ‘remain choppy’

Hundal said that while there are “diamonds in the rough” outperforming Bitcoin ( BTC ), like several memecoins, most altcoins will likely “remain choppy” until Bitcoin passes the six-figure price level. On Nov. 23, Bitcoin narrowly missed $100,000, reaching $99,605. At the time of publication, it’s trading at $96,476.

Altcoins to stay choppy until Bitcoin hits ‘exuberant move’ — Analyst image 0

Bitcoin is trading at $96,476 at the time of publication. Source: TradingView

“I mean, they might see a 20%, 30%, 40% gain, but then it’ll retrace most of that move the next day,” Hundal said.

On Nov. 21, Solana ( SOL ) posted a 12.98% gain within 24 hours, only to give up nearly 13% in the following five days.

Even major memecoins by market cap have seen this pattern. On Nov. 15, Pepe ( PEPE ) surged approximately 93.15% in just 24 hours following listing announcements by Coinbase and Robinhood, only to retrace almost 22% of those gains the very next day, according to CoinMarketCap data .

When asked if PEPE has the potential to do “800% days” like seen in the previous cycle with Doge ( DOGE ), Hundal said he “wouldn’t discount that, but when you’re talking high market caps, you really need that capital flowing in.”

“These sorts of things become more possible when Bitcoin dominance is coming back to the downside.”

Bitcoin dominance measures Bitcoin’s market capitalization as a percentage of the total crypto market.

Bitcoin dominance is key

Hundal believes that Bitcoin dominance may reach the “65 to 67% range,” even “up to the “70%” range before it starts to decline.

“For me, it’s not a case of trying to pick the PICO top of Bitcoin dominance as to when the altcoin market is going to start coming down,” Hundal said.

At the time of publication, Bitcoin dominance is 58.30%, according to TradingView data .

Altcoins to stay choppy until Bitcoin hits ‘exuberant move’ — Analyst image 1

Bitcoin dominance is 58.30% at the time of publication. Source: TradingView

Pseudonymous crypto trader Mikybull Crypto said in a Nov. 28 X post that “violent declines in Bitcoin dominance will begin next month.”

However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently warned his 374,200 X followers not to expect the altcoin season to be the same as in previous cycles.

Ju said this is due to institutional investors driving the current Bitcoin rally, who have little interest in the more speculative tokens.

Related: Traders still riding on ‘hot altcoins’ despite Bitcoin pullback: Santiment

“Unlike crypto exchange users, institutional investors and ETF buyers have no intention of rotating their assets from Bitcoin to altcoins,” Ju said.

“For altcoins to reach a new all-time high market capitalization, they will require a significant influx of fresh capital to crypto exchanges. The altcoin market cap below its previous ATH indicates reduced fresh liquidity from new exchange users,” he added.

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