Bitcoin has a 50-50 chance of reaching $100K by year-end: Options data
Nearly half of Bitcoin options traders are betting on a six-figure price by the end of 2024, with a few even eyeing a surge to $150,000 despite the recent pullback to $90,000, onchain data shows.
“Interestingly, the likelihood of BTC exceeding $100,000 has risen to 45% from last week’s 34%, with a new 4% probability of surpassing $150,000,” onchain options DeFi protocol founder Nick Forster said in a Nov. 26 markets report.
‘Very few’ Bitcoin sellers, according to data
Forster said that the significant demand for Bitcoin ( BTC ) options, particularly calls that bet its price will rise, “signals a strong market appetite for both upside potential and downside protection.”
BTC Put Call Trade Distribution Graph. Source: Derive
According to Derive data, 41.3% of contracts traded were calls, while 38.3% were puts betting Bitcoin would drip with “very few sellers.” These grant the buyer the right, but not the obligation , to purchase (call option) or sell (put option) Bitcoin on or before an expiration date at a particular price (the strike price).
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is priced at $92,680, down about 7.02% from its near $100,000 peak, which topped out at $99,541, according to CoinMarketCap data .
Bitcoin is trading at $92,680 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap
The data also indicates that by the end of 2024, Bitcoin has a 68% chance of retracing to $81,493 or rising to $115,579. Meanwhile, there’s only a 5% chance of it dropping below $70,000 to $68,429 or reaching as high as $137,645.
However, some analysts have not ruled out the possibility of more severe pullbacks.
More brutal pullbacks a possibility, says analysts
CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju said in a Nov. 26 X post that even in a “parabolic bull run, Bitcoin can see -30% pullbacks.”
Ju highlighted that “such corrections repeatedly occurred” during the 2021 cycle when Bitcoin then surged from $17,000 to $64,000.
“This isn’t a call for a correction — just manage your risk and avoid panic selling at local bottoms. We’re in a bull market,” Ju added.
Related: Bitcoin $92K price correction triggered by long-term hodlers, not ETFs
Meanwhile, prominent crypto analyst PlanC is “happy” to see Bitcoin “consolidate a bit in the 90s.”
“It’s looking more and more likely that we could actually spend some time consolidating in the 90s,” PlanC stated in a Nov. 26 X post .
“If that’s the case, it would be the best-case scenario for the longevity of this bull market,” he added.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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