Billion-Dollar "Crypto President Suite": Trump's Bull Market Scheme | Bull Market Bottom-Fishing Guide
This is the worst of times, yet the best of times
Many veterans and old hodlers in this cycle feel that the bull market in 2024 is quite different in style compared to 2021. It's challenging because there is no native narrative creation, no influx of new hodlers, no influx of high FDV projects for harvesting, and the long-awaited Mass Adoption is still nowhere to be seen...
However, as Dickens said, "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times." The solution to the mystery of crypto wealth is often written on the surface.
Following Trump's Bull Market
At the moment when Bitcoin was approved for an ETF, crypto assets became a market dominated by the West. In this cycle, almost all major positive news and narrative innovations have come from Western capital, whether it's SocialFi, DePIN, or Restaking. In this "Hardest Bull Market in History," all you need to do is follow Trump, follow Western concepts, to switch to Easy mode.
Trump's Bullish Meme
BTC
After Trump took office, the leader of the pack was Bitcoin. Due to the spectacular performance in 2021, many old hodlers still hope to replicate the previous Alt season, while new hodlers are indulging in the fantasy of "going all-in on meme coins and lying flat for wealth." However, in this bull market, as long as you hold onto BTC, the return on investment has long outperformed a portfolio full of "all-in meme" coins.
Since the beginning of the year, BTC has surged from 40k to around 98k, achieving a return on investment of over 200%. The only assets that have outperformed BTC during the same period are meme coins and some mainstream public chain tokens (such as SOL, SUI); most meme coins still have similar prices to the beginning of the year.
Before the election, Trump had been openly promoting BTC. At the Bitcoin 2024 conference held in Nashville, Trump appeared and delivered a speech of nearly an hour, declaring that he would "fire the SEC chairman" and "never sell your Bitcoin." He also mentioned establishing a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, ensuring the U.S. becomes the world's crypto center and a Bitcoin superpower. Trump's election and his series of positive policies and commitments toward Bitcoin in the global capital market are very rare. With Trump's endorsement, BTC broke through the long-standing resistance level around 70k with brute force and achieved a 40% price increase in a short period.
In addition to the ETF, the national strategic reserve and becoming a Bitcoin superpower have become the biggest narratives for BTC.
DOGE
As the pioneer of meme coins, Dogecoin has deep ties to Musk and Trump. In April 2019, Musk tweeted that Dogecoin was his favorite cryptocurrency, considering Dogecoin to be "pretty cool." In a May 2021 Saturday Night Live show, Musk referred to himself as the "Dogefather" and called Dogecoin the "people's cryptocurrency." Over time, Musk has increasingly become intertwined with Dogecoin, even becoming the public face of Dogecoin in popular perception. To this day, DOGE has gone through four bull-bear cycles but still firmly holds a top-ten position in the cryptocurrency market cap.
Many people held the belief of "market cap too large to move" and "buy new, not old," so they did not pay much attention to DOGE. However, after its launch, DOGE directly entered an independent market, stunning everyone with its "pump-path." It has quadrupled in price over the past year and doubled in the past month, heading straight towards $1 per coin.
PEPE
The name Pepe comes from the character Pepe the Frog created by American cartoonist Matt Furie, originally appearing in his work "Boy's Club." This character, with its cute image and funny expression, became beloved and gained some attention on the internet. Pepe the Frog first appeared in a comic in 2005 and later became a well-known meme in internet culture. Pepe Coin was launched on Ethereum in April 2023 and, after nearly a year of consolidation, began a sharp rise in February of this year. Since then, it has maintained market cap fluctuations in the tens of billions of dollars.
After a six-month silence following its popularity in Western meme culture, Pepe was listed on Robinhood and Coinbase. Robinhood, as the largest stock exchange in the U.S., previously only had two memecoins, DOGE and SHIB. The addition of PEPE to Robinhood shows the U.S. market's attention to Pepe. This move in the development of Pepe in the U.S. market was another significant positive, causing the market cap to maintain its $6 billion value and PEPE to surge by 50%, briefly breaking the $10 billion mark.
WIF
In late December 2019, an image of various logos and images added to a knitted hat became popular as a profile picture on Twitter among esports organizations and celebrities. WIF, short for dogwifhat, draws its image creation inspiration from the meme pioneer "DOGE," while incorporating the viral knitted hat characteristic with viral proliferation.
WIF and PEPE have a similar trajectory, with WIF being considered PEPE's junior. On November 14, Coinbase listed dogwifhat (WIF) and saw a price surge of over 30% on the same day, approaching its previous high. Apart from being already listed on Coinbase, on November 25, Robinhood also listed WIF, making WIF the first Solana memecoin to be listed on Robinhood.
PNUT
PNUT is one of the most memed animal memes in this cycle, second only to DOGE, which Elon Musk has also shilled.
The squirrel image of PNUT originated from a squirrel named "Peanut" adopted by an engineer named Mark seven years ago. Mark often shared videos of his interactions with Peanut on Instagram, gradually gaining hundreds of thousands of followers. However, nearby residents complained to the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) that Peanut might be carrying a disease. Surprisingly, DEC raided Mark Longo's house without a search warrant and took Peanut away. Subsequently, Mark Longo launched a petition on social media, gathering tens of thousands of signatures from supporters. Unfortunately, Peanut was eventually euthanized by DEC.
After Peanut's euthanasia, Dogecoin posted a statement criticizing the Democratic Party, and Musk mourned Pnut, proclaiming that Peanut would be saved if Trump came to power. The animal image represented by Peanut not only remained a viral meme but also began to be associated with a pro-Trump political stance.
Due to the rapid and massive FOMO-driven price increase in its early stages, PNUT attracted many retail investors who bought the top, leading to a 9-day long consolidation phase. PNUT is currently showing signs of stabilization on lower timeframes and hinting at a potential recovery.
In the previous "Bull Market Bottom Fishing" series article, the author provided an in-depth narrative analysis of PNUT ("Why Is $PNUT the Biggest Alpha of This Cycle? | Bull Market Bottom Fishing List"), explaining why PNUT has consistently maintained a market cap above $1 billion while most memecoins fail to break through this threshold.
In addition to these memes, there are other coins highly associated with Musk, such as DOGE (which, post-Trump era, is depicted as Musk's new government department), Banana (the logo on Musk's rockets). For more information on DOGE, refer to the author's previous article: "How Did a 500 Billion Dogecoin Position Musk in the New US Government Department?"
Trump-Friendly Companies
People often follow the historical experience of the bull market over the years and usually follow the investment logic of the "Pyramid Wine Glass": BTC leads the rise, overflow funds flow to mainstream currencies such as ETH, and then overflow again to lower-market-cap altcoins, thus ushering in an "altcoin season." Under this round of the "BTC Bull Market" in the United States, the market belatedly discovered that there seems to be no altcoin season. "BTC has been leading the rise, and funds have never overflowed."
However, the altcoin season has not disappeared but has taken on a different form: the funds after BTC's rise have overflowed to BTC-related concept US stocks.
COIN
COIN is the stock of Coinbase, which has achieved an extremely high surge of 800% this year. Before the election, Coinbase's stock price continued to rise due to the arrival of the Crypto bull market. Although COIN experienced a pullback in the middle of the year, Coinbase's stock price rose by 31% on November 6, 2024, due to the election results, increasing from $193.96 to $254.31. Investing in COIN is equivalent to investing in the "US Crypto Asset" beta, and almost any positive news related to crypto assets will be absorbed by COIN's stock price.
In addition to COIN, other US stock targets related to the crypto series also have a strong sense of momentum.
MSTR
MicroStrategy itself is a business intelligence software company but has embarked on a "debt to buy Bitcoin" strategy for the past 20 years. As of now, MicroStrategy holds 1.2% of the total circulating supply of Bitcoin on its balance sheet, making it the publicly traded company with the most Bitcoin holdings globally. MicroStrategy's stock price skyrocketed by 1000% in a year, far exceeding Bitcoin's return.
MicroStrategy's debt-funded Bitcoin purchase strategy has led many to worry that MSTR is the next LUNA, but in fact, MicroStrategy is much more secure than LUNA. Also, its most recent repayment date is in 2027, a long time away from us.
In addition to companies like MicroStrategy that rely on Bitcoin to do a balancing act, many "small-cap" companies have also begun to emulate Microstategy's strategy. For example, fitness equipment company Interactive Strength (TRNR) said that after its board of directors approved using cryptocurrency as a treasury reserve asset, the company plans to purchase up to $5 million worth of Bitcoin. After the announcement, the company's stock price surged by more than 80%. Similarly, "small-cap" companies such as LQR House (LQR), Cosmos Health (COSM), Nano Labs (NA), Gaxos (GXAI), Solidion Technology (STI), and Genius Group (GNS) saw a brief surge in their stock prices after announcing their Bitcoin treasury plans in November.
Western Concept Public Chain
In addition to the currency closely related to Trump, the inauguration of this Bitcoin president has been a great boon for all crypto projects rooted in the West. Not only will the regulation of crypto assets be relaxed in the USA, but it will also facilitate the flow of traditional finance into crypto assets. Among the coins listed on Coinbase, the US traditional brokerages can first access, apart from BTC and ETH, include ADA, BCH, DOT, XRP, etc. Similarly, when the flood comes, the water will only go where the basin is.
SOL
Solana, as one of the high-performance public chains challenging Ethereum in the previous cycle, seems to have "half" replaced Ethereum's position in the crypto ecosystem in this cycle. In the last cycle, Solana was backed by FTX, but after FTX went bankrupt, Solana repeatedly became the target of FUD by everyone, hitting a low of only $11. Since September 2023, Solana has ushered in its trending market. In a year, Solana, with its high performance and low gas fees, has become a true meme public chain in the entire crypto space, forming a unique gameplay centered around memes, successfully breaking through $200 and once again challenging its previous high.
XRP
XRP found itself deeply mired in SEC legal disputes and regulatory quagmires at the beginning of this cycle. In December 2020, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Ripple Labs, alleging that it conducted an unregistered securities offering through the sale of XRP. The SEC considered XRP to meet the securities standard, thus requiring registration and compliance with federal securities laws. Due to the SEC lawsuit and regulatory uncertainty surrounding XRP classification, several cryptocurrency exchanges, including Coinbase, delisted XRP. On August 7, 2023, the court made a final judgment, requiring Ripple to pay a civil penalty of $125,035,100 and prohibiting the company from further violating the Securities Act.
Ripple's CEO claimed on FOX News that the XRP ETF will be launched in 2025
However, after Trump took office, XRP not only dispelled the previous regulatory issues but also multiple institutions eagerly began applying for an XRP ETF.
In early October, Bitwise and Canary Capital successively submitted applications to the SEC for an XRP ETF. On November 2, 21Shares filed an application for the XRP ETF "21Shares Core XRP TRUST" with the U.S. SEC, also joining the ranks seeking approval for an XRP ETF. On November 25, WisdomTree Funds submitted a fund registration application in Delaware for the "WisdomTree XRP Fund" and is preparing to submit an S-1 registration to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Although the SEC has not yet approved any ETFs, after Trump officially takes office, cryptocurrency ETFs may be approved in bulk.
UNI
Uniswap, as the flagship application of Crypto, has become many people's "first stop on the chain." To this day, it remains the highest-grossing Dapp. It occupies 50% of the trading volume among all DEXs and has always been the leading DEX. However, UNI is not in the majority of people's portfolios, mainly due to reasons such as "its $70 billion market cap is too large, with no money-making effect" and "UNI is a meme coin, with no practical use."
Uniswap's potential goes beyond being the leading DEX. In October of this year, Uniswap announced the launch of Unichain designed specifically for DeFi ("Unichain rushed online, which projects are capable now?"). Meanwhile, the biggest upside for the UNI token has yet to be realized. As the largest DEX in Crypto, Uniswap has also been eagerly eyeing a protection fee from the SEC. On April 10 this year, the SEC issued a warning to Uniswap, planning enforcement action against the company. The core point of contention is that if the UNI token wants to be empowered to allocate Uniswap's transaction fees to token holders, then UNI would conflict with securities laws. If Trump takes office, UNI will be free from regulatory constraints. Its nature of "dividends" will elevate UNI to new heights.
BASE
Base is a Layer 2 solution backed by Coinbase. Although it has not yet launched its token, Base's fundamentals far exceed those of other L2 solutions. Not only does it offer a smoother trading experience than the mainnet, but many native narratives have emerged on Base, such as various projects within the SocialFi sector. In the meme race, Base has also made its mark by snatching the "AI meme" segment from Solana. Whether supporting VIRTUAL, which enables AI Agent mass issuance, or the Pump.fun CLANKER on Base, the AI wave has quietly surged on Base. The author once summarized the targets of the Base AI ecosystem in the article "The Base Ecosystem Brewing Quietly with Hundredfold Opportunities, What Are the Speculative Targets?". Among them, Clanker has already surpassed a $1 billion market cap today, breaking many people's inherent ceiling perception of on-chain assets on Base.
Similarly, there are projects like DOT and ADA, known as "old projects," whose market capitalization is too large, and their inception dates are too early.
Conclusion
When conducting investment research and analysis, most people often fall into the psychological pitfall of the "I am the only one in the world" mindset, seeking alpha that only a few pay attention to.
There is too much noise in the voices around us from an early age: in traditional education, teachers often pay more attention to students who can solve problems using new methods; in martial arts novels, the powerful sweeping monk often has his unique "exclusive techniques." Influenced by such social norms, when entering the market, one is usually influenced by this "I am the only one in the world" prisoner's dilemma.
Most ordinary traders look down on the top 100 projects by market capitalization, even the top 10 projects, and often search for coins with market capitalizations in the tens of millions in hopes of finding a "get rich quick opportunity." Instead of spending so much energy focusing on alpha in various racing tracks, it may be more cost-effective to study "Trump," this alpha, well.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
The Graph is creating new data standards for Web3 through GRC-20
The address with a swing win rate of 83.3% liquidated WBTC, with a loss of $184,000
A whale sold 366.5 WBTC 7 hours ago, losing $239,000