Today's Must-Read | Twitter Featured Views [November 22]

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Renata2024/11/22 09:21

By:Renata

Ⅰ.KevinZ: Meme Market Review and Six Strategies Sharing

KevinZ conducted a deep review of the Meme market in the article and proposed six investment strategies. He combined data analysis and practical experience to provide investors with clear ideas and action guidelines.

Core strategy:

Narrowing the hitting area: focusing on Meme with potential

It is more important to clarify what not to buy than to cast a wide net.

Shangda Exchange is an important symbol of Meme. In this round, companies such as $PNUT (1.46b), $GOAT (1.08b), and $ACT (476m) have all broken through a market value of 400m.

Data statistics show that among the 60,000 coins graduated from PumpFun, there are less than 100 with a market value of over 10m (winning rate is only 0.16%). If the goal is to achieve a 10-fold return, you need to buy when the market value is between 100k-500k, but the winning rate is still only 2%.

Expand information sources: increase win rate

On-chain data monitoring: scanning the chain, group collaboration, and analysis of key indicators (such as chip structure and fund fluctuations).

Smart Money Address Monitoring: Determine whether there are potential market makers and improve accuracy through cross-validation.

Communities and social media: WeChat and TG groups observe the spread and track early Call projects.

News and social media: Follow market trends as they come, such as Musk's updates.

KevinZ emphasizes the importance of establishing one's own information source system.

Small bets for big: Diversified betting strategy

The newly launched project initially invests in a small lottery warehouse to avoid the risk of zero return.

If the project's popularity or traffic controversy is high (such as case disputes), you can bet on multiple projects at the same time to strive for positive expected returns.

Small capital layout helps to capture opportunities at the peak of traffic.

Continuous tracking: signal recognition for adding positions

The long-term market value of the project is maintained at 20m-30m, the number of holding addresses continues to grow, and the distribution of chips is healthy, which is a potential signal for adding positions.

Listing on Tier 2 exchanges is an important liquidity indicator, indicating potential for subsequent buying.

Refusing narrative bias: using a grading mechanism to judge

New narratives, strong project endorsements, celebrity endorsements, or political event bonuses are indicators of good narratives.

If you don't understand the narrative, seek help from friends in the industry in a timely manner. If necessary, accept the missed reality and move on to the next opportunity.

Written at the end:

The "plate feeling" of Lao OG comes from long-term accumulation and muscle memory.

Don't be limited by daily PVP battles, pay attention to macro changes (such as industry trends and BTC trends).

Think about the necessary conditions and efficiency of new gameplay, and seize the opportunity by laying out in advance.

Taking the success of GMGN as an example: developing products in advance + rigorous system + long-term accumulation are the keys to victory.

“We’re still early.”

See also: https://x.com/0x_KevinZ/status/1859577925840011362

Ⅱ.Viktor: $XRP Cyclical Behavior and Current Market Observations

VIKTOR analyzed the cyclical behavior of $XRP since 2020, pointed out the similarities between its price pattern and the current market, and combined recent market dynamics to share his views.

Historical mode of $XRP:

Since 2020, the typical performance of $XRP is:

Vertical rise → Distribution → Long-term decline.

In November 2020, when $BTC approached its historical high of $20k, the XRPBTC exchange rate experienced a severe squeeze and then fell sharply. There are significant similarities between the current market and the situation four years ago.

Current viewpoint:

Hedging short positions:

The FDV of $XRP is as high as $110bn, which is one of VIKTOR's main hedging short targets.

Although large traditional currencies have performed the best in the past 10 days, VIKTOR is cautious about the future trend of $XRP.

Bull market drivers:

If Trump wins, the regulatory shadow of the SEC may disappear, further benefiting $XRP.

Ripple is one of Trump's largest cryptocurrency donors, which may provide an opportunity for the $XRP ETF and may even push the price up through other means.

Caution and bullish reasons:

Viktor believes that the current valuation and price of $XRP largely reflect potential positive factors, and its upside potential may be limited.

Based on the consistent price behavior of $XRP, he believes that the sustainability of the bullish scenario is not high, and the long-term upward momentum is insufficient.

See also: https://x.com/thedefivillain/status/1859541713204674834

Ⅲ.Yuyue: Why I am bullish on $AVA - a new form of asset publishing, Meme first, then AI.

Yuyue analyzed the asset publishing logic and market operation mode of $AVA in depth, pointing out that this is a new way to combine Meme and AI. He discussed the importance of Meme in the community and anticipated the market potential of $AVA.

Meme's Core Value

V God's viewpoint: People come for profit and stay for ideals.

The publishing model of Meme coin has become a hot spot in the current market, forming a sharp contrast with traditional VC coin.

The role of Meme: By deconstructing seriousness, it brings the track or project into the public eye, attracts attention, and increases market participation. For example, $AVA became the first AI project (@holoworld) supported by a serious VC to participate in the Meme community.

$AVA's market operation and conspiracy

Resources and support:

Wintermute initiates a test transfer to provide market-making services (MM) for $AVA.

Community supporters include well-known KOLs such as ansem, him, CryptoHayes, etc., who retweet and buy.

Polychain retweeted @AVA_holo to show support for the project and token model.

Uniqueness of the publishing model:

$AVA's publishing model generates a strong sense of upward push through Meme, allowing community retail investors to eat meat while accumulating loyal believers.

Unlike traditional VC projects, $AVA does not rely solely on the Vesting model, but builds core asset forms through Meme.

Potential Layout of Polychain

Polychain is the main promoter of Modularization narrative and AI mining (such as TAO), or in this round of AI Agent + Meme narrative, using $AVA to fight against $GOAT of a16z.

If this speculation is true, it will be a grand narrative with a market value of at least 500M, with extremely high cost performance.

Investment logic

The current price of $AVA is in the range of 50-60M, and the investment risk is proportional to the return: it goes down to zero and up to 10x.

The key to investment is to trust the logic and continue to observe, otherwise even if it rises to a high point, it may be too early to get off due to suspicion.

Conclusion

Yuyue encourages investors to discuss the greater potential of $AVA in the comment section and reminds again: NFA (non-investment advice), DYOR (self-research).

See also: https://x.com/yuyue_chris/status/1859189199569858850

IV. 0xWizard: The Method of Getting Rich Quickly - Dare to Play the Second Wave

0xWizard shared the core of his investment strategy: let go of prejudice and bravely participate in the second wave of wealth effect. He combined historical cases of DeFi, Ordi, and Meme to explore in depth how to seize the wealth wave.

Core viewpoint

Be brave enough to seize the second wave of opportunities.

DeFi Summer: Missed the first wave, but caught up firmly in autumn.

Ordi missed the mint stage, but seized the opportunity in the second wave of 3u-7u on OK.

Zoo Meme: Did not participate in the first wave, but achieved profits in the second wave of AI Meme.

Methodology: Let go of prejudice and take action immediately

Although the preliminary judgment on the first wave may be biased towards negation:

DeFi: Consider it Ponzi.

Ordi: I think it's boring, it's garbage.

Zoo Meme: Judged as air coins.

But the key is, when the wealth effect appears, quickly let go of prejudice, rush in decisively, and don't hesitate.

The reason why most people miss it

The first reaction to the wealth effect is usually hostility, resistance, and slander. The root cause is:

Laziness: unwillingness to delve into research and action.

Jealousy: Unable to accept the success of others.

Rage: Angry because of missed opportunities.

If we cannot cut off prejudice in time and embrace the new wealth effect, we may repeat the mistakes of those who hold onto old assets and resist new trends, just like the "Lang Xianping" who resisted Crypto in the past.

See also: https://x.com/0xcryptowizard/status/1859598770830442644

Ⅴ.Timo: Meme callback response experience - from analysis to action

Timo answered common questions from investors regarding the recent pullback of Meme coins on the SOL chain, and shared investment insights on holding positions, coping with pullbacks, and self-growth.

Analysis of callback phenomena and causes

There is no coin that only rises and never falls. A pullback is only a matter of time and stage. Some coins may rise to 50m or 100m before a pullback, but they will eventually experience a correction.

Analyzing from the perspective of a single currency:

Zhuang La Pan needs funding sources.

Owned funds.

After the first wave of trading, funds are obtained through profit taking.

The market maker pursues ROI and will use the minimum cost to make a large plate.

How to avoid liquidation after only one sale in a garbage store?

Distinguish the Sustainability of plates through the "Meme Eight Questions" (combined with narrative, strategy, and mechanism judgment).

Analyzing from a market perspective:

Overall market liquidity: The pullback of BTC and SOL may cause volatility in the Meme market.

Black Swan events on the chain: such as DEX theft, project party run away (such as gm.ai founder cut 30 million dollars).

Coping strategies during callbacks

If you only earn PVP money: you should immediately clear your position and quickly stop loss when there is a pullback.

If you have confidence in the narrative, mechanism, and market, you can add positions instead of selling during a pullback.

Reduce palpitations during callbacks

If the initial problem is not thought through clearly, it is easy to fall into panic and not know whether to add or clear positions, asking for opinions everywhere.

Learn to take profit.

It's impossible to earn all profits from start to finish, gradually taking profits is a good way to avoid panic.

Only by settling down can one earn money, and the remaining profits can be allowed to run freely.

If there is a loss, it is only a small profit; if the currency price rises sharply, it is an unexpected surprise.

Summary of experience

Investing in the Meme market requires rapid self-iteration and growth. Don't always follow others to buy coins.

Taking profit and rational decision-making are the core methods for dealing with pullbacks.

The most important thing is to think independently and form your own judgment.

See also: https://x.com/timotimoqi/status/1859593050277937174

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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