Market Prediction Rising Star: What is Truemarkets, Attracting Vitalik to Mint 400 NFTs?
Has Polymarket met its match?
Original Article Title: " Vitalik-Minted Prediction Market NFT: Use Cases and Rights? How to Evaluate Protocol Value?"
Original Article Author: Nanzhi, Odaily Planet Daily
At around 7:00 PM yesterday evening, Vitalik's address bridged 32 ETH to the Base chain and minted 400 NFTs named Oracle Patron. After gaining community attention, the minting speed skyrocketed. OpenSea data shows that after completion, the transaction price quickly rose from a cost of 0.08 ETH to a peak of 0.25 ETH. At the time of writing, the floor price still reached 0.232 ETH, representing nearly a 200% increase, with a total market value of approximately $10.8 million.
(Note: Vitalik's address is 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA96045)
Which project does the Oracle Patron NFT originate from? What are its use cases or rights? Odaily Planet Daily will analyze this in this article.
Truemarkets Prediction Market
The issuer of the Oracle Patron NFT is Truemarkets, a binary prediction market. Its trading mechanism is similar to Polymarket, simplifying each event into a binary yes/no question and creating a corresponding binary trading market. The odds of the two answers are real-time priced based on market perception, with traders and liquidity providers supplying YES and NO tokens to maintain market equilibrium. After the outcome is determined, tokens corresponding to the correct answer can be redeemed for $1, while the value of the opposite tokens becomes zero.
(Related readings: "In-Depth Revealing of Polymarket's Technical Implementation," "As the U.S. Election Nears, Is Polymarket's Data More Trustworthy?")
What Sets It Apart?
Unlike Polymarket's process of market creation through proposal review, Truemarkets' market creation is currently limited to whitelisted addresses. In the official documentation, Truemarkets states that market creation will also be delegated to an AI Agent and will achieve permissionless market creation by 2025, but the specific process and methods have not yet been disclosed.
NFT and Token Use Cases
According to the official documentation, the current Oracle Patron NFT's sole purpose is to serve as a proof of entitlement for the TRUE token airdrop, with each NFT receiving 2666.67 TRUE tokens, totaling 40.19 million tokens, accounting for 40.19% of the total token supply. Therefore, based on the current NFT valuation, the total token market cap is $25 million.
So, what is the use case of the token? According to the current official documentation, TRUE is solely used as a governance token, where token holders have control over protocol fees, manage the oracle committee, among other permissions. The oracle committee is responsible for managing market creation, incentive distribution, dispute resolution, among other transactions, and substantial incentive-related content for the token has not yet been seen.
Post-Election: Are Prediction Markets Okay?
The U.S. election undoubtedly played a key role in supporting its Polymarket and other prediction markets. After Trump's victory, DefiLlama data shows that the TVL of prediction markets dropped from a peak of $545 million to the current $134 million and has been consolidating at this level for a week. Polymarket dominates the TVL rankings at around $100 million, with Azuro in second place at $7.8 million, a significant gap.
In terms of product, Polymarket has not been updated for several days, and the current focus remains on updating various markets, with the top-ranking market being "How many basis points will the Fed cut in December?".
Similarly, Azuro has not had any major updates in terms of product and mechanism in recent months, with its focus also on expanding markets. At the end of October, Azuro launched special markets, allowing the creation of events outside the regular sports or political scope, with examples such as "Will CZ return to Binance after getting out of prison?" or "Will BTC hit a new high before December 2024?".
It can be seen that the prediction market mechanism has entered a relatively mature and stable stage, and how to discover and create betting topics that are "people-pleasing" will be a key focus for the foreseeable future.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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