JPMorgan Chase: US debt ceiling risk eased due to election results
JPMorgan says that the election results have reduced the risk of intense debate over the US debt ceiling in the first half of 2025 and eased uncertainty about the evolution of the Treasury General Account (TGA). The debt ceiling has been suspended until January 1, 2025, after which the Treasury will begin using unconventional measures and its cash balance to fulfill its debt obligations. JPMorgan believes that assuming the Treasury's TGA forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024 is $700 billion and unconventional measures are slightly increased, the Treasury is unlikely to deplete its resources and face technical default risks before July 2025.
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