Weighing the Harris/Trump crypto impact on Election Eve

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Election Day is tomorrow. Polls in recent days show the race remains very tight. 

Knowing whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will be the next US president is expected to impact crypto markets in some way, though exactly how is something we won’t know until the next few days (at least) play out.  

Let’s rewind to May for a moment, when a couple things grabbed the crypto industry’s attention: The Trump campaign started accepting crypto donations and President Joe Biden vetoed a resolution (deemed to be pro-crypto) that would have invalidated the SEC’s SAB 121.  

That month, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz likened crypto opposition (more prevalent on the Democratic side) to criticizing dogs — noting the tens of millions of Americans that own each. 

Later, Trump spoke explicitly about his support for crypto — at a meeting with bitcoin mining executives in June and then at the Bitcoin 2024 conference the following month. Among his promises at the latter event in Nashville included firing SEC Chair Gary Gensler and stopping government sales of seized bitcoin. Also in July, the GOP mentioned ending the “unlawful” crackdown on crypto in its party platform.

Harris has made a few comments in support of emerging technologies (including crypto) and pledged to bolster Black men’s rights to safely invest in crypto — but has not shared many details. Galaxy research head Alex Thorn has said he expects Harris to be more supportive of crypto than Biden has been, but less favorable to the industry than Trump.

Crypto was not mentioned in the Harris/Trump or Tim Walz/JD Vance debates. And Harris has not shared what she would do about Gensler — a point Blockchain Association’s Ron Hammond said industry participants wanted more clarity on from her.

Coinbase chief policy officer Faryar Shirzad gave Harris credit for engaging with the crypto community, but lauded Trump’s more comprehensive remarks on the topic.  

While the latest New York Times poll was largely unchanged from previous ones (national polling average shows Harris leading 49% to 48%, as of Monday morning), Trump’s big lead (according to Polymarket odds) has shrunk from several days ago.

Bitcoin was trading below $69,000 on Monday morning, down from the $73,000-plus level it reached last week. 

Andre Dragosch, head of Bitwise’s European research, said in a note that while bitcoin’s correlation to US presidential election odds have increased lately, its “macro correlations” to traditional assets (like US stocks or gold) remain higher.

Bitwise estimates show, if the election was held today, that a Trump victory would boost bitcoin’s price by 10.1% (sending it to an all-time high), while a Harris win would spur a 9.8% decline for the asset.

Swan Bitcoin managing director John Haar is among those expecting that the election may only have a short-term impact on crypto markets.

“In the medium and longer term, we believe that the outcome of this presidential race does not materially alter the trends supporting bitcoin, which include continued government deficit spending, expansive Fed monetary policy and ongoing bitcoin adoption,” he said.

Many have reminded us that what politicians say they’ll do, and what they actually do, can differ materially. So it’s safe to say the election results will represent a new chapter to this evolving story, but not the end.

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