Trump’s Winning Odds Drop as Harris Gains Ahead of 2024 Election

As the 2024 presidential election gets closer, the betting odds on Polymarket show a significant shift in favor of Kamala Harris.

Over the weekend, Over the weekend, Trump’s odds of winning dropped to around 57.7% on the platform. In contrast, Harris’s chances increased from 33% to 42.3%.

Source: Polymarket

This shift comes after a recent poll by Ann Selzer from the Des Moines Register in Lowa showed Harris leading Trump by three points, even though Trump won the state in both 2016 and 2020.

On another prediction platform, Kalshi, the gap between Trump and Harris has also narrowed. Trump’s odds are now at 54%, while Harris is close behind at 46%. This is a big change from earlier in the week when Trump had a much larger lead of 65% to 35%.

Source: Kalshi

Prediction sites like Polymarket and Kalshi work differently from traditional polls. Instead of asking people who they plan to vote for, these sites let people place bets on who they think will win. These odds then reflect the bets and the overall feeling of people using the site.

Since January, Polymarket has seen over $3 billion in bets on the presidential election. Typically, Trump has been the favorite among younger, male users who are interested in cryptocurrency.

Last month, one bettor on Polymarket recently placed a massive $45 million bet on Trump . Although Harris has taken the lead on some prediction platforms, Trump still has a slight edge on Polymarket, with a lead of 15.7 cents as of Saturday morning. He had been increasing his lead since early October, but recent events have caused that margin to close. 

On the platform, Trump currently has the support of $1,225,567,333 worth of bets, while Harris stands at $776,568,898.